He does have a plumbing business but I wouldn’t hire him as without a license he most likley does not have insurance.

This is to bad for “Joe the Plumber” as now he’s getting more negative publicity than he bargained for.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/joe-in-the-spotlight/?hp

I don’t know which polls you’re referring to, but there is one poll that’s hardly ever wrong. That’s because it’s not a conventional poll – it’s a market where people get to invest their real money in political outcomes.

The University of Iowa got special permission from the SEC and other agencies to create an actual market in political futures data, as a scientific experiment. This has been running for years and it’s incredibly prescient. It picked Obama to win the Democratic nomination by the 2nd week in january; it picked McCain for the GOP in the first week in February. Take a look at the Presidential race:

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm

I don’t know if it’s possible to say what “the” problem is – he has so many of them. I don’t have any doubt that Palin has hurt him outside of some small band of right-wing religious fanatics.

But you are also right that his economic philosophy is way out of step with current sentiments. And his meandering slightly out of focus delivery contrasts poorly with Obama’s sharp, confident focus.

When my wife heard the promo for this show “What can McCain do to reverse his falling prospects?” she said, “Nothing! Don’t change a thing!” I agree. Whatever he’s doing, just keep doing it for 3 more weeks.

You can disagree with Obama, but he articulates a clearly thought out vision that comes across as new and different and oriented around a progressive role for government in improving peoples lives.

McCain on the other hand comes across as if he wishes he were somewhere else. I have a lot of respect for John McCain, but this is not the maverick senator that we have come to admire in the Senate, but someone who seems to be just touting the old republican party line of lower taxes and limited government. I am also left with the impression that he is not as committed as Obama to using government policy to improve the economic prospects for all Americans and especially those on the lower end of the income scale.

John McCain comes across to me as believing in the republican party ideals of free markets and trickle down economics as the main vehicles in the long term for creating jobs and economic growth. I think that McCain is trailing in the polls because many Americans have lost faith in that vision. If he had earlier in the campaign gone for a more maverick moderate approach he would have stood a better chance, but that would have risked losing the support of the republican base

I agree. Barring a major “October surprise” or a mega-gaffe by Obama, it looks like Obama will win by a landslide.

And I also agree that Palin is a major factor. Yesterday I heard an interview with a female National Review (read: conservative) columnist who says Palin is a major deficit and pointedly refused to endorse McCain, hinting broadly that she would vote for Obama, although she didn’t come out and say so.

As the campaign has worn on, McCain/Palin have looked more and more ridiculous, while Obama has looked more and more calm, confident, and Presidential. Given that we’re just about to enter one of the worst economies we’ve ever seen having a President who can display a calming, confidence-building demeanor is exactly what we’ll need.

I dunno – I think that’s a value judgement.

Politics is about choosing which leaders to follow. In a democracy it’s actually about selecting leaders, but even in autocracies the leader STILL has to play politics, which is why spectacle, propaganda, iconography, etc, are still critical to staying in power.

I think expecting people to make informed policy decisions in some calm, rational, analytic manner really flies in the face of human nature. Obviously some people do this, and probably many more at least like to think that they do, but the data just doesn’t support the idea that this is how most human beings function.

Maybe in some futuristic society we can breed a computerlike “homo politicus” who can rise above it all, but until then politicians who want to win elections had better learn to market themselves.

Following the 6-degree of separation, if ANY democrat or supporter makes a negative statement. This person is automatically morphed into Obama. On the other hand, this rule is not applied to McCain thanks to the press. McCain/Palin have been allowed to do far worse THEMSELVES, directly.

I can only imagine what would be the fall-out if OBAMA has a video with a religious nut praying on his head and casting out witches as with Palin. Or Obama being found GUILTY of unethical behaviour in office as with Palin. Or Michelle Obama being a member of an organization pushing for the separation of their state from the Union as with Palin’s husband. Or Obama having a pregnant teenage daughter, with a drug-using high school drop-out. Or Obama graduating at the bottom of his class due to poor grades and misconduct as McCain did in the Naval Academy. Or Obama cheating on his disabled wife and leaving her wealthy heirress as with McCain. Or Obama being a past member of the Keating 5.
Any one of the above would have ended Obama’s political CAREER, let alone his bid for the White House. McCain should thank his lucky stars for beeing in a position of priviledge with the press.

Buckley pointed to Palin as one of his reasons for losing faith in McCain.

The other thing is that McCain’s campaign kept up the personal attacks, was erratic and impulsive to Obama’s claim and focused approach. In the end McCain has looked more like the inexperienced politician and the guy who they said did not have enough experience turns out to be a very good one.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html

http://minnesotaindependent.com/12165/palins-friends-the-america-hating-iran-conspiring-aip