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The Stimulus Debate
President-elect Barack Obama names Nancy Killefer, left, to the newly created position of chief performance officer, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2009, at his transition office  Washington. (AP)

President-elect Barack Obama comments on his economic plans on Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2009, at a press conference at his transition office in Washington, DC. (AP)

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He’s been pounding the drum all week, and again this morning. Barack Obama, in what his aides bill as a major speech on the economy, is warning loud and clear that it’s bad, and that without quick action — without a huge stimulus package — could get a lot worse.

Unemployment into double digits. Family incomes dropping. A “generation” of American promise and potential, he warns, at risk.

OK, we’re scared. So what’s in the package?

This hour, On Point: The shape and size and politics of Obama’s super-stimulus package. And the super-sized question, Will it work?

You can join the conversation. The challenge looks huge. So do the deficits. Do we have a choice here? Does the federal government have to spend big-time, right now, to save the economy? And spend on what?

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

From Washington, we’re joined by Greg Ip, U.S. economics editor at The Economist.

Also joining us from Washington is Christian Weller, economist and senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a think tank with close ties to the incoming Obama administration. He’s also a professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.

And from Palo Alto, California, is John Taylor, professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs under President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2005 and served on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors during the Ford and George H.W. Bush administrations. He was an economic advisor to John McCain during the presidential campaign.

More links:

Time’s Mark Halperin has excerpts from the prepared text of Obama’s speech.  Politico and The Wall Street Journal preview the speech.

 

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Listener comments
  • Important program. Thank you for having it. My question is, how does it work to cut taxes and increase spending at the same time? Does this money come from Treasury bonds and the like? I’m not for or against it, I’d just like to understand how that works.

    Is there anything that Americans can do, as individuals, to help? Apart from shopping.

    As well, I read in the NYTimes this morning that China, who I think is the major holder of US Treasury goods, is wanting to keep it’s money at home. How does this affect us then?

    Posted by Elizabeth, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:16 am EST
  • Now remind me again why we used to insist that developing nations devalue their currency and cut spending during a recession? And explain in detail why the Washington Consensus does not apply to us? Do we wonder why the rest of the world calls us hypocrites? Shame on us.

    Posted by Loay, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:17 am EST
  • Obama is trying to burn the candle at both ends.
    It wont work you can’t keep this deficit up.
    If we get above 6 or 7 percent of the GDP we could be in real trouble.

    Posted by jeff, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:27 am EST
  • The government must direct the bulk of the stimulus at encouraging investment in assets which will be of long term benefit to the US economy. This investment should include bridges and road repair but more importantly upgrades in the US communication infrastructure to give universal broadband access. We also need increased support for research and development in the areas of alternate energy, transportation, energy transmission, healthcare in all aspects, and new materials. A quick stimulus will only generate short term retail gains and a transfer of more wealth to China and other overseas producers.

    Posted by Peter, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:28 am EST
  • Part of the stimulus package should be resources for the US and state income tax offices to eliminate inequities in pursuing taxable income. No state should get stimulus funds when it does not have an effective tax collection system. This will assure US taxpayers that all states are receiving US tax funds after states have exhausted all reasonable efforts to collect state-owed taxes.

    Posted by joel watson, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:37 am EST
  • discussion of a stimulus package should include discussion of the u.s. defense budget. it seems difficult to pay for a big package without strict limits on the costs of foreign wars. the economy is now the most acute security concern.

    Posted by bruce wheaton, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:43 am EST
  • Thanks for considering my question for your panel. I hope you seriously consider my statements/comments.

    How different is what we’re talking about with regard to the stimulas plan and our ongoing deficit spending with Madoff’s ponzi scheme? I see an eary parallel with how our government borrows and spends $ and how Madoff operated his so called investment firm. Isn’t our monetary system, as controlled by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury basically one big ponzi scheme? We have to continue to borrow money $ to pay off the investors that bought bonds previously. Isn’t that what Madoff did. When the $ stops flowing in (from China, Japan, private investors, etc…) doesn’t the whole system collapse just like Madoff’s scheme? What happens to the dollar when this happens?

    Thanks in advance for considering my question.

    Posted by Joe Bourassa, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:43 am EST
  • I believe that when the attacks of 9-11 happened George Bush missed a huge opportunity to rally the american people to develop a grass-root civil defense structure. I speak of something in the model the Japanese and other countries have to protect the population in the event of natural disasters like earthquakes and hurricanes. It would have served him well politically if such a structure had been in place in time for the landfall of hurricane Katrina.

    I hope that Mr. Obama does not miss this similar opportunity to rally the American people at the grass-roots and local level. To use his uniquely optimistic opportunity to move this economy from a credit economy to a cash economy. For folks (and corporations) to understand that it is their own personal responsibility to live within their means. It may mean that the downturn may last a bit longer and that we may not see an “exuberant economy” again. But it will serve our children, – my daughter a brighter future.

    And I say this as somebody who lost his job.

    Posted by Daniel, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:48 am EST
  • My question goes along with Elizabeth’s, could we do something like during WWII where a PSA campaign encouraged Americans to buy bonds. Bush has not asked Americans to sacrifice or contribute in any way. His message is always the same and it amounts to pointless jingoism. Well, can’t we help?

    Secondly, instead of sending a check to all Americans, couldn’t we send a gift/credit card with a limit of $500 on each one. The government picks up the tab paying the monthly minimum with interest to help the banks. It insures that citizens MUST use the money to purchase and not sock it away. It could come from many major banks to spread it around. Just a thought.

    Posted by Scott, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:50 am EST
  • John Taylor’s moronic assertion that the Bush tax cuts pulled us out of the last recession has been proven absolutely false.

    The huge bubble of illusionary wealth created by artificially inflated home and stock prices is what ended the last recession and is also exactly what is responsible for the current ruined world economy.

    WAKE UP you idiot Republicans!

    Posted by Petey, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:51 am EST
  • I live in Massachusetts, on the same day that our governor (a huge disappointment, he will not get my vote again) made a statement on cutting services in the state the legislation is getting a wage increase of over 5%.

    What’s wrong with this picture?

    Posted by jeff, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:52 am EST
  • all the businesses that thrived and grew in the boom economy leading up to the recession existed in a vacume economy that in actuality didn’t exist. its time to let these businesses fail and trim the fat off the american economy. trying to bail them all out is in effect trying to prop up the skelleton of an economy that only existed on paper.

    Posted by Andy Campbell, on January 8th, 2009 at 10:55 am EST
  • That was a great idea from your economist caller from BU: Put a small tax on all stock and bond transactions. I mean, he’s right, Wall Street and its greed got us into this, why not use their engine to help drive us out.

    I trade and I can say I’d have no problem with this.

    Posted by Richard, on January 8th, 2009 at 11:07 am EST
  • For succint analysis of the current economic turmoil (especially as it relates to the debt) I recommend checking out Chris Martenson’s ‘Crash Course’: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

    Posted by Alex, on January 8th, 2009 at 4:12 pm EST
  • There’s already a tax on trading; it’s called the capital gains tax. Short-term gains are taxed at considerably higher rates than long-term gains.

    It wasn’t Wall Street’s greed alone that caused this; there was greed all over: from homeowners, investment property speculators, pension fund managers, mortgage brokers, bankers, politicians….

    Posted by Majawill, on January 8th, 2009 at 6:22 pm EST
  • Our economy is like the titanic. It has hit an iceberg and is in deep trouble. What is needed is industrious people who know how to build, fix and repair. Jobs (Industrial driven economy) The problem is that all those people and jobs are gone. What is left on board are consumers and what they do is consume.(consumer driven economy) So our boat is filled with people who know how to consume the goods but no longer know how to make the goods. So they panic, fear turns to people running around not knowing what to do. The sinking ship needs repair, but no one knows how to fix the problem. Along comes help,throw billions at the problem, get the people consuming again is the answer! Yet, the ship is still sinking because what could fix it has long been sent off the ship. The people know this, so what do they do? Consume more in hopes that will repair the problem. No! instead they will either save the money because it will not fix the problem or pay off the debts they have incurred for their pleasure cruise to the nuts that built the unsinkable ship.(the banks, the stock markets,the government,etc.) More debt adds more weight to a sinking ship. I hope I am wrong. My stimulus check will go straight to the bank so that I can buy that life preserver I may need later.

    Posted by David, on January 8th, 2009 at 7:47 pm EST
  • I keep hearing these reasons for the stimulus:
    1) create jobs, and
    2) economic growth.

    Unfortunately, what you are not told is:
    a) we can put unemployed to work by decreasing the hours in the work week or encouraging single income households, and
    b) economic growth has no correlation to the economic well-being of our country’s households so economic growth is useless as a goal that should be sought.

    If you need an expanded argument here it is. I’ll begin with an example for a): Let’s say that you work 40 hours a week in the field producing 40 pounds of food. You only need 35 pounds per week to survive but you also lose 5 pounds of food per week at the local gambling casino. Of that 5 pounds, the wealthy casino owner keeps 1 pound as profit and pays the card dealer the remaining 4 pounds. One day you decide to stop gambling to begin to accumulate food for retirement and the card dealer becomes unemployed. Even if you decide to give the ex-card dealer the 4 pounds of food he was getting before, you are still better off by not gambling because you still have an extra 1 pound of food. Of course, we all know that it is not good for our society to give capable people food for doing nothing so you decide to tell the ex-card dealer that you will give him 4 pounds of food for doing 4 hours of your work in the field. Now, not only do you have the extra 1 pound of food but you have 4 extra hours of free time. The only person that ends up with less is the wealthy casino owner and perhaps that is why you never hear about the 35 hour work week option. Now, imagine if you multiply this example by as many unnecessary products and services that we consume in this country.

    About b): Let’s say that I am the employee of the daycare that watches your kids while you are working and you’re the employee at the company I hire to clean my house while I am at the daycare. This activity is represented by a number called GDP (which unfortunately has come to represent the “economy”). Now, if I decide that I want to clean my own house and you decide you want to watch your own kids, both of us have not lost a thing but GDP has decreased. In fact, we are financially better off because we keep the profit that our employers had kept for themselves.

    Of course, you may say that my logic is ridiculous but you can’t say that they are wrong. You may think that my examples don’t accurately reflect our society but I think they do.
    In Wisconsin, we get a tax credit if both spouses work (whether or not they have kids). Enticements such as this credit drive up the supply of labor and, therefore, drives down wages which neutralizes the tax credit. The second job actually requires additional spending by the household which neutralizes the additional income which is why the second job needs the subsidy to seem economically attractive to the household. You can read about this dilemma in books such as “The Two Income Trap”.

    So that is one of thousands of points of wasted consumption that provides no actual benefit to our households but only generates lots of transactions for the wealthy to profit from.

    Posted by Wade Kuettel, on January 8th, 2009 at 8:45 pm EST
  • The plan makes sense to me.

    - Give people money (which is what we should have done in the beginning rather than giving it to banks and wall street because the corporations will ultimately be getting the money from the people anyway.)
    - People will save the money rather than spend it. (This is most likely what will happen.)
    - Prices will deflate in order to attract customers (and it’s about time.. personally I think it’s ridiculous to pay $9.00+ for a movie. Stop paying actors millions of dollars.. no one deserves that much money in a single year, no one.)
    - Jobs will be cut due to lack of customers, and this is exactly what Obama means by ‘it will get worse before it gets better.’ BUT, this will not be a bad thing indefinitely. People will have received stimulus money and will hopefully have saved it. Maybe more small businesses will appear. Maybe people will go back to school and make better lives for themselves by obtaining their ideal career. It will inevitably get worse before it gets better, but with deflated prices and extra income in our pockets, the economy *will* start to recover. That will be inevitable, too.
    - And the most important point of all is the message Obama is putting out there. ‘Help me, help you.’ Why are we so blind to this obvious act of compassion? Why do we desire a President who shuns us rather than helps us? We need to embrace change and give it a chance.

    We need to stop convincing ourselves and others that an economic plan will absolutely not work. We need to start having HOPE that it CAN work. If we all contribute to making it work, rather than sitting back with a disbelieving attitude and expecting it to not really work, then it will help the plan work for EVERYONE. Do your part to be patriotic for the economy.

    Where has hope gone in this country?
    I want to say.. I still believe.

    Posted by Eve, on January 9th, 2009 at 10:50 am EST
  • PROM KING-ELECT

    O what joy to be loved everywhere,

    Tops in affability,

    Running still for the title of

    Mr. Popularity.

    Posted by Leon Freilich, on January 11th, 2009 at 7:49 pm EST
  • Why hasn’t anybody thought about trimming the ridiculously high government spending (or wasting),or cutting a billion or so needless government employee’s
    Since the “department of financial stability” doesn’t work, get rid of it. And I can think of a lot of other government “jobs” that are a complete waste of money.
    How about ending this stupid ‘war on drugs”, since it costs billions of dollars, and is causing more deaths, ruining more lives, than it prevents. When a law causes more harm than good, it’s time to get rid of that law. Common sense, now if the government would hire people that had some of that, it would greatly improve things, or, if we would elect people with some,that would be good too.
    I think maybe this ‘Barrak” guy, might just be one, we’ll find out.

    Posted by joebanana, on January 13th, 2009 at 4:40 pm EST
  • Something needs to happen, I think a second stimulas package is a great idea.If something don’t happen quickly I’m afraid i won’t beable to feed my children, than my husband will be with out a job. Also the prices of everything are going up qickly,before people will beable to have time to think of what’s gonna happen next.SO lets get the economy back up to where it should be. Another stimulas package.Plus people need to stop arguing and thinking it won’t work, never know the first one helped.
    Thank you for your time.

    Amy Jewer

    Posted by Amy Jewer, on January 15th, 2009 at 10:28 am EST
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