
Residents wear surgical masks as they exit the subway in Mexico City on Monday, April 27, 2009. (AP)
1976, Fort Dix, New Jersey. An outbreak of swine flu among military recruits. Washington feared a pandemic. Stepped in big. Immunized 40 million Americans. But the flu just disappeared.
2009, in Mexico, New Zealand, New York, Kansas, Texas, the UK, and now Israel, Spain, and more — swine flu is making big headlines again. Spreading. Killing in Mexico. Moving up the WHO pandemic scale, now to Phase 4 of 6.
Will it roar? Or vanish? And could a flu born in warm Mexico spread right through the summer?
This hour, On Point: The science and threat of the swine flu outbreak, 2009.
You can join the conversation. Are you double-washing your hands yet? Have you been traveling — maybe catching, or worried that you’ve caught this new virus? And what questions do you still have, after all the reporting, the calls of alarm and for calm? Tell us what you think — here on this page, on Twitter, and on Facebook.
-Tom Ashbrook
Guests:
Joining us from Mexico City is Victor Hugo Michel, special affairs reporter for Milenio, one of the biggest national dailies in Mexico.
From San Antonio, we’re joined by Don Finley, medical reporter San Antonio Express-News. He’s covering the swine flu investigation in Guadalupe County.
Joining us from Atlanta is Dr. Joe Bresee, M.D., chief of epidemiology and prevention in the Influenza Branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
From Washington we’re joined by Dr. Michael Greger, M.D., director of Public Health and Animal Agriculture at the Humane Society of the United States. An expert on animal-to-human diseases, he’s author of “Bird Flu: A Virus of Our Own Hatching.”
And from New York we’re joined by Delthia Ricks, health reporter for Newsday and author of “100 Questions & Answers About Influenza.”
More links:
The CDC website offers information on the swine flu, including questions and answers on symptoms, treatment, and prevention.
In this CDC video, Dr. Bresee talks about the swine flu, its symptoms, transmission, and treatment:
Tags: health, influenza, Mexico, pandemic, public health, swine flu












About a year ago Mexico legalized abortion (the dismemberment and decapitation of human beings) in the face of lots of oppostion. Since then, they’ve faced the worst drug violence they’ve ever seen, and now a possible pandemic beginning in Mexico City. Any connections here?
Posted by Ed Helmrich, on April 28th, 2009 at 7:17 AMThere is no connection between having an abortion and drug wars or the flu….I’d say the drug problem has to do with an increase in gun traffic from the US as well as a poverty stricken population. In regards to the disease, well, SARS began in China and the Avian flu spread from Asia as well. I don’t think there is a connection here.
Posted by Eric, on April 28th, 2009 at 8:05 AMNo there is absolutely no connection! How incredibly ridiculous. Your opinion on the topic is inappropriate for the topic at hand.
Posted by DK, on April 28th, 2009 at 8:35 AMEd , if you don’t like abortions , its simple don’t have one …Can men like you stop trying to control women’s bodies?….If you believe that a fertilized egg is a human being …that’s your fictitious problem , but stop propagating that myth. People like you force women to take care of children they can’t afford .Why don’t you concentrate on abandoned ,abused and desperate children all over the world ? How much more poverty do you want ?. Wherever in the world you see women badly treated , you will see poverty .
Posted by R.M., on April 28th, 2009 at 9:02 AMhaha! ok, let’s leave the troll alone now, folks!
Posted by gina, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:04 AMEd: I think you hit a nerve!
Posted by Rachel, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:08 AMConsidering that the flu is a virus, it is really possible to wash your hands enough to dispose of the virus?
Posted by Christine, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:09 AMLast year the big fear was bird flu. We anxiously prepared for it, waited for it, people were testing migratory birds in Alaska as they crossed from Asia. AND …. nothing. Not even the least of the fears were realized.
Are we transferring alot of pent up anxiety for Bird Flu, as well as economic anxiety, to this?
Posted by Andrew, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:12 AMI heard an interview with the BBC yesterday with 3 20-somethings and a physician from Mexico City, and there was talk of some believing this to be a ploy by the government for reelection. At the risk of sounding cynical or a conspiracy theorist, is there any evidence [or possibility] that this could be a bioweapon?
Posted by Christine, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:14 AMWhat I would like to be discussed:
Posted by Asia, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:16 AM1) Why are people only dieing in Mexico? Is the flu virus that much stronger, or are the deaths the result of poor health care?
2) If the virus is treatable, and the infection seems to be originating and most prominant in Mexico, wouldn’t it be logical for the international community to provide health and treatment aid to the major outbreak areas in Mexico?
Washing your hands is the single most effective way to halt the spread of disease and viruses. Don’t skimp on the soap.
I wonder how much of this is media hype. I remember in 2001 the reporting of shark attacks rose by 300,000% despite the fact that attacks were actually down that year.
Don’t panic yet, this isn’t the Solanum virus for goodness sake.
Posted by Mark, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:20 AMI plan on attending a large, outdoor public gathering of ~80,000 people (music festival). This event will be held within the next two months, and attendees will be camped out in open fields with portajohns, and open wash facilities that drain onto the open ground.
What level of flu will cause local and state government officials to consider cancellation of the event?
Posted by Frederick Burroughs, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:26 AMhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85sD83aRUIQ
Here’s a YouTube video of Dr. Bresee discussing the virus.
Posted by Mari McAvenia, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:28 AMSpread it around- virally- if you like. A little education can do a lot of good.
Michael Greger is a PETA nut. Why on earth was he invited to share in a serious discussion? Too bad.
Posted by gary, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:29 AMSaw a couple of reports yesterday about the Republicans having stripped out of the budget funding for flu preparedness measures. T or F? And if T, what are the ramifications? Thanks for the small government guys! Way to go!
Posted by Julie, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:30 AMSwine flu, huh? So, where are all the sick/dead pigs? Whatever this flu is, it seems to have been genetically altered or engineered in order to be transmittable from swine to humans. Why isn’t this aspect being addressed? Too on point maybe?
Posted by Todd, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:32 AMHi,
Posted by Denise, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:33 AMHow should people who are immune suppressed ie transplant patients, people on arthritic drugs suppressing the immune system, be advised about this flu and how should they be treated if contract this disease? Will they survive?
TOM, Please….
How long will it take to develop a Vaccine??
What preparations are being taken for the likely 2nd wave of this virus should it return in the fall?
Is there enough tamiflu in stockpiles for the US population?
Posted by Mark, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:36 AMReports keep saying this swine flu is composed of a combination of swine, avian and human virus. How these components come together in a specific strain of the virus? Do they have to go through pigs,and birds and humans before they form this particular virus?????
Posted by Lynn Rhenisch, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:39 AMTOM… a question for your guest.
How far back should we concerned about the virus? Most reports are of recent visits to Mexico having a connection. I was there a couple of months ago and developed a bad flu after I returned. Is this just a recent (past two weeks) concern?
Posted by Jennifer, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:41 AMScience… It would be nice to hear some discussion of the technical info about the genetic nature of the virus. How does an avian virus interact with a mammal virus, what vectors… Are the cellular proteins, the virus interacts with, conservative genetic motifs between mammals and birds?
Posted by Jeremy Baker, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:44 AMBaker
So, what about people who take Tamiflu or Relenza and then do NOT complete the course of treatment? Isn’t that what makes viruses resistant?
Posted by Carolyn, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:45 AMOcean going shipping containers… as a source, maybe, if not cleaned…
Posted by Jeremy Baker, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:47 AMAndrew, and readers, H5N1 human-to-human clusters are still being fought the past 4 years; since the Karo cluster, after which Dir.Gen.Lee dropped dead and Chan of China, (which certainly didn’t warn the world about SARS -and H5N1 comes from China; Phase 4 declaration would have impacted their Olympics) and, it is an birds & Beasts & human flu; that our tax dollars have been helping to be Contained to delay pandemic outbreak- supposedly to buy us all time to prepare but there’s still no vaccine and your commnities are unready for the Mitigation Guidelines that have been up on fed. pandemicflu.gov for years, undiscussed- the need for Pandemic preparedness wasn’t even a campaign issue ! Historians aren’t going to belive this- just like the mistakes of 1918.
-but, before N.America could close its borders, and keep H5N1 out if it breaks out, up pops this new virus in Mexico where it won’t be noticed and woudl enter the US. Now the WHO and CDC say don’t close the borders”, don’t have Entry Quarantines and “don’t do social distancing yet”.
Who benefits? Not US families nor national security.
Go get ready; you were already supposed to be,
see Planning link on pandemic flu.gov
but there was no political will to be honest with you.
The WHO kept the Alert Phase from being raised, and now free nations venver did their Phase 4 & 5 preparedness steps. Who benefits? Even now, the situation met the criteria for Pandemic last week.
Remember what happened to the people that obeyed the message to stay in the South World Trade Center Tower; do your own homework and take steps to prepare.
One county in Idaho has better preparednes recommendations than the federal govt’s (two weeks -that isn’t enough for a hurricane, let alone Pandemic Year) you need to do more than “wash your hands”;
the feds/state/local are not planning on meeting your needs; they’ sadi that quietly since, 2005.
See GetPandemicReady.org
H5N1 has been being “Contained” only because Tamiflu still works, so far; we are not prepared nationally! What os the resistant seaonsl flus give that gene to H5N1 and/or the new Bird/Man/Swine flu?
Go see News on the PFI Forum;
where concerned netizens who care about families and nations survival, have better news coverage
– the worse the H5N1 news got, the less of it you heard on msm.
PFI Pandemic Flu Information Forum and see the list of, just since Dec. 2008. to present,
“List of H5N1 cases, clusters, events, quotes”
There is also background of this new bird/man/swine flu.
All the best to everyone – everything will be different this year-
and H5N1 may be secondwave (would we even notice it now; if there was a deliberate release in Mexico or an airport?) if we don’t get on a war footing now.
Go start getting your households and communities better prepared for anything.
Posted by cr, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:50 AMSee GetPandemicReady.org
I’m supposed to be traveling to Turkey this weekend for vacation. Conceivably, I can reschudule this, as it’s not urgent or necessary that I travel now. I’m not worried about getting the flu there, but am really considering changing my plans on account of the long plane flight. IF this is possible, do you think it’s a good idea…just as a prophylactic measure?
Posted by Jemimah, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:50 AMWith all due respect: if we ever needed an illustration of the need for a more experienced and capable host for this show, today was it. Example: end of show, interrupting an expert on how we should prepare for a pandemic, with his own insipid and irrelevant comments. This has been an ongoing and worsening problem since Tom Ashbrook took over this time slot: constant interruptions, inappropriate interventions, un-intelligent questions, poor time management … Bring Back Dick Gordon !
Posted by Dana, on April 28th, 2009 at 10:02 AMDana, I think Tom is doing a fine job. I listen to the show because of Tom’s edge. Other shows let people ramble… which has its own charm in some ways, but I can go to the coffee shop to hear people ramble on, to massage their own opinions.
Posted by Jeremy Baker, on April 28th, 2009 at 10:39 AMRegarding Tom’s interruptions… he keeps the show’s momentum and focus from descending down, too deep, into the abyss of a person’s bias that may distract from the show, other times he has a track he is trying to stay on… End of show issue might be a book mark, to let the guest(s) know the show is over.
I know an excellent jazz musician who performs often, but not on a daily basis, as often as Tom’s shows. I don’t cherry pick my friend’s poor moments to judge his overall abilities, otherwise, I would be wrong. For every note that is played in error, or bridge missed, or botched cadence, my friend performs the tune excellent 90% of the time… well beyond the average player.
Tom, I plan to keep listening, as long as your show doesn’t change.
Jennifer, Mexico outbreak may have started in Feb; a poor community said they needed help and officials were slow to respond. It was more widely in Mexico in mid-March, and a US DoD dependent in CA was the first “officially confirmed” human new flu case, on April 1 with a new diagnostic [one doesn't make a new diagnostic test for a virus one doesn't know exits]S
Students shoud have been prevented from going to Mexico during Spring Break. Why screen for terrorists but let emerging viruses of unknown origin right in?
The facts end up as obscured as in China, Indonesia, or any of these other places spokespeople conform to, “political and economic pressures”.
If a school in NY has sick kids, but officials get delayed in traffic; only have 9 kids still there to test who haven’t left for home for the weekend; 8 test positive, then, they claim, “the school only has 8 confirmed cases”- they never say they didn’t test the other 75 or whatever sick kids the school had called public health about!
It takes days to get “official” results – a hospital in Providence, RI over the weekend refused to put a suspect case returned from Mexio into isolation, left them sick in the croweded ER two hours, then, did the test incorrectly the first time, and released the sick person,(so, I can I trust their second test results? Was he on Tamiflu by then?) hospital claimed they hadn’t seen the memo/test protocol when he cmae to the ER!
“Official” counts are like watching an invasion on tv that has a time-delay of several days
(how backlogged is the CDC; where all tests has to be re-tested to be “offically confirmed”?
It does not reflect facts on the ground.
Remember what happens when untruths or coverup by members of a group is “unthinkable” by the public. Catholic church, Financial investment sector, well: take a look at Public Health. They been trying to increase MRC and other volunteers numbers for panflu but, the media isn’t covering each weeks H5N1 cases, the “panflu planning “worst”-case AR/CFR numbers were made up by the WHO/CDC looking at “1968″, or 1918 (even Spanish Flu killed 20% to 70% of pregnant women infected! “2.5% was an after-pandemic US average) instead of the H5N1 virus that put us into Pandemic Alert!
Influenza is contagious 1 to 2 days before symptoms.
Some at HHS and DHS though this was, “too hard” for planning purposes so they deny reality and say it doesn’t count! But, Nature says it does!
We need entry quarantines- give time to see if someone will come down sick before you let them in.
Some people in high-risk jobs are already shielding their families from infection as of last weekend; by removing clothes outside, coming in to wash, and then wearing a respirator in the house; no point bringing virus in to your family.
You are already in a Pandemic – and how is H5N1 surveillance and Containment going to be effective; the economy was already cutting funding – Indonesia says it “will use its bird flu budget to counter swine flu” (but, it can’t test for it and doesn’t know how to treat it if its there, now they ‘worry’ about “pigs” – when, because of H5N1, they should have all this time -and cats, and dogs, and other carnivores) – but, H5N1 isn’t just about birds anymore in Indoensia -hasn’t been for years, and so-called “swine “flu isn’t just about pigs, either.
Pre-symptomatic people, and sick people – that’s our first risk – or, maybe, it’s “misinformation that encourages complacency”, spin which may not all originate from our nation.
Christine, soap and water does kill influenza viruses on hands and surfaces.
Better also to get into the habit of never touching your face at all when out in public (if I need to rub my eye, I use the inside of my cuff or my upper arm), dont eat or smoke without washing or using alcohol gel first.
(what’s going to happen if nicotine deliveries get impacted? And what about Rx psych meds? Bet no lawmakers had us stock those locally, nor “palliative care meds; liquid opiates for people impacted by panflu or staff losses, or long-forseen disruptions to our “JIT” globalized supply chain. Got food? Food you can cook/eat if the power is out? Got water?).
Communities never really had the “all-stakeholder, Pandemic-specific Preparedness Coordinating Committees they were supposed to form at least 4 years ago; to make workable local contingency plans (Panflu prep got hidden in the existing, “all-hazards” priorities; instead of including community groups and the public and having panflu as only priority.
Even after someone from NYC flew to an undisclosed human-to-human clsuter in NWFP Pakistan and back, in late 2007, later found, to have been infected but not, obviusly, infectious. But no one wanted to have travel warnings, nor alarm the citizens so we could prepare to be more resilient (would have helped for those ice storms, and even the ecnomic downturns- especially if the public had been working towards preparedness, and having mortuary drills (they’ll need workable mortuary surge long before any effective vac becomes available – no “mass graves” plans please – “collective burial’ deputize who can make death certs, bury bodies separate and identify spot)
since the state panflu summits with HHS in 2006.
The govt does not expect the electrical grid to be able to stay up if too many people are allowed to fall sick. Cyberhackers, likely the PRC, can also take our grid down, whenever it will do us the most damage.
Tea-party groups (and any community groups) should read “PFI Pandemic Flu Information Forum”, and the April 2007, DHS “Best Practices and Model Protocols” pandemic document.
Denise, go to pandemicflu.gov, left sidebar in “Plan & Prepare”, “Community ” tab, page down to link to “Managing Mass Medical Care with Scarce Commnity Resources” check the date on that, too.
Asia, your questions:
1) possibly both
2) too late; WHO and CDC waited too long – hard to explain why, but, many nations now have it, and they will soon need what, “scarce resources” they have “”on hand”, because the airports weren’t closed.
Sheltering in place, at least until communities could take stock and see how much the stealth virus has already impacted us, would help flatten the peak of number of new infections and people needing care each day. We are only beginning; haven’t even hit the peak of firstwave yet.
Jemimah, many people are deciding the risk isn’t worth it; existing medical systems cannot take any surge – lets try not to be part of the problem, and give govt time to find out where this virus came from (and make sure it is the only virus that was under our radar.
See also the (up since July, 2006) “US State Dept H5N1 factsheet” – policy, not publicized, is that you may be stranded by Pandemic, and, will be given,
“No food, water, nor medical care” at US embassies.
Not very fair for the govt to know that since summer 2006, but not the taxpayers and school students.
Jeremy Baker the virus is being discussed on the “PFI Forum,” “Pandemic Flu 2009 Sequences” thread.
Do what you can to be better prepared at home.
Posted by cr, on April 28th, 2009 at 11:09 AMCan’t do it all at once; pick something that would help you most first, from GetPandemicReady.org
Well put^^^^^^^
Posted by Sage, on April 28th, 2009 at 12:51 PMLooks like to me that the media is going overboard in their coverage. All over the internet on news and political websites are screaming and large headlines. You would think we were at the beginning of a Will Smith “I am Legend” movie.
Posted by John M, on April 28th, 2009 at 12:53 PMI say, it is simply to early to tell where this is story and virus is going. I am curious on how instantly the story was pegged with the word “Pandemic” by the media.
But, there is good information coming out that people should be following as a matter of course anyway; frequent handwashing with lots of soap and hot water, not touching one’s eye’s, nose, or mouth.
Although, I am now wondering about my ownlittle flu outbreak a week ago from last Wednesday. I came down suddenly with a bloating cramp feeling and no desire to eat. I left work early and just got home when I sick and was out of work next two days. It wasn’t until Sunday that I fully got my appetite back. What is curious, is that I know at least eight people who also had the stomach flu during that same time period. Hmmmm…..I wonder if there is something more?
I am legend…
Posted by Mark S,, on April 28th, 2009 at 6:11 PMMy question is, if I have the Swine Flu right now, and recover, and the flu then mutates, will I have immunity?
Posted by Nancy Duggan, on April 28th, 2009 at 7:45 PMmy understanding is that we should be calling this a double-swine avian human flu.
Posted by blanca, on April 28th, 2009 at 7:48 PMTo Todd, these viruses are harmless in the animals themselves. There is no “genetic engineering” plot involved, all flu originates in water fowl. No point in getting yourself in a needless paranoid tizzy, like certain people who would like to blame the flu on abortion. Stay well.
Posted by Nancy Duggan, on April 28th, 2009 at 7:50 PMIt’s clear we need to stop the spread of animal factory farming, or we’re just going to be seeing more of these types of outbreaks. Yes, meat will be more expensive if we transition away from factory farming, but humanity, especially those of us in the developed world, is eating far too much meat than is healthy for us and maybe if it was more expensive, we’d all eat less of it and be much healthier. Animals simply don’t belong in tiny cages or crates so small they can’t behave normally. Of course these animals are going to be highly stressed and susceptible to diseases like the various forms of flu if they are raised in high densities away from the sunlight and in cramped spaces.
Posted by Andy, on April 28th, 2009 at 9:16 PMWhile listening to this On Point segment of Swine Flu and Pandemic Fears, and the expert guests on the subject of animal transmission of deadly global disease to humans; I think I’ve finally come to understand one of the ways the rider on the pale horse called Death in the book of Revelation, chapter 6: verse: 8, will have power to kill one quarter of the Earth’s population … (with the beasts of the earth) … check it out and see.
Posted by Peter Pjecha Jr., on April 28th, 2009 at 9:32 PMSoap breaks-up the virus envelope and coat.
Wash your hands with soap and water. Use a paper towel to turn off the taps and to open the bathroom door.
Sneeze into your sleeve then breath twice into your sleeve.
If you hold in your sneeze, the first time you exhale you will be releasing the atomized sneeze anyway. Watch carefully the next time you do it. You will see a mist leaving your mouth or nose.
If someone near you holds in their sneeze cover your mouth and nose. Not as bad as being sneezed on directly but still a cloud of second hand secretions.
Posted by Frederic C., on April 28th, 2009 at 9:59 PMGary,
Not only is Dr. Michael Greger not a nut, PETA or otherwise, he’s a highly respected expert on diseases that have their origins in animals, hence his current tenure at HSUS. Most of the zoonotic illness in recent decades (SARS, ebola, etc.) have occurred because of the horrid way humans treat animals around the globe. If we stop eating and exploiting creatures we shouldn’t (like civet cats,chimpanzees and pigs), human infectious disease epidemics such as swine flu will virtually disappear.
Posted by Tracie, on April 28th, 2009 at 11:15 PMWhat if you do not have a doctor and come down with respiratory illness symptoms? Just show up at your hospital’s walk in clinic and wait 6 hours to be seen?
Posted by Expanded Consciousness, on April 29th, 2009 at 12:59 AM“If we stop eating and exploiting creatures we shouldn’t (like civet cats,chimpanzees and pigs) … ”
To Tracie,
What does “shouldn’t” mean, regarding pigs? Humans domesticated pigs a long time ago (thousands of years); our species have evolved together since then. You could make a very good case that we shouldn’t raise pigs the way they’re raised on factory farms, and maybe that’s what you meant. But to say that we shouldn’t raise pigs at all is much less defensible.
Posted by Clint, on April 29th, 2009 at 5:40 PM