An important part of the bottom line for recovery is as follows:

Almost all of the prosperity of the Bush years was based on illusion. How, for instance, did job growth and wealth creation meet the needs of population growth during Bush’s eight years? The answer is key to understanding what an attempted recovery will look like.

Economists during this period consistently told us that economic growth of six percent per year was needed in order to meet the needs of population growth and to maintain standard of living. Well, during much of Bush’s tenure, it looked like we were meeting that goal. But how? Was the growth healthy and sustainable, or based on “false growth,” or in essence, illusion.

THE CULPRITS

It turns out, as we now know, that the major drivers for wealth creation and the attendant job growth during the Bush years were three main factors: sky-rocketing home values, sky-rocketing stock values, and easy credit.

FIRST CULPRIT

Home values doubling every few years (due almost exclusively to foreign investment), is something that will likely never happen again, and SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN unless we want to repeat the economic fiasco that led to this recession. Home prices are still adjusting to reasonable levels, and when all has settled, trillions of dollars worth of wealth will have evaporated as easily as it was created. This wealth should never have existed in the first place.

SECOND CULPRIT

The artificial creation of all that wealth fed the stock market bubble, as did investor stupidity. The stock of healthy companies should trade at maybe 10-20 times earnings, TOPS. Instead, companies were trading at absurd multiples, many at hundreds of times earnings. This was the “irrational exuberance” alluded to by Greenspan. Again, as stocks adjusted to reasonable levels, trillions of dollars of wealth evaporated. Also again, this was wealth that should never have existed in the first place.

THIRD CULPRIT

Foriegn investment and banks flush with bubble cash made for easy credit. This allowed Americans to spend far beyond their means, even as they were making a killing off illusionary wealth that would soon disappear into the ether from which it came. This level of freak spending, bolstered by artificial wealth creation and easy credit, is what allowed job growth in America to keep up with population growth. Since almost all of America’s wealth creation was on paper and not based on real productivity, almost all of the jobs created were service sector jobs fed by the irrational spending of illusionary wealth.

THE BOTTOM LINE FOR RECOVERY

The tens of trillions of dollars lost in housing and stock market will likely never be seen again. More importantly, unless we want to have an economy again based on illusion, those tens of trillions SHOULD NEVER be seen again.
This means that we had a decade of population growth for which no new real wealth was created. This lack of new real wealth means no new spending to create new jobs… FOR TEN YEARS WORTH OF POPULATION GROWTH!!!!!
In other words, the wealth simply doesn’t exist anymore that sustained the last decade’s worth of people that were added to our country. It evaporated! It’s gone, likely never to return… or at least no time soon.

This is the true legacy that Bush left our country and our new President. The Bush administration was content that all of our growth be illusionary, that none of it be based on real increases in productivity… that it NOT BE SUSTAINABLE. Unfortunately, this leaves no hope that enough jobs can be created to ever again bring our unemployment down to the low levels to which we’ve been accustomed. Also unfortunately, Americans will never place the blame squarely where it belongs (on the shoulders of Republicans), and we’ll end up thwarting the recovery efforts of one of the most honorable and intelligent Presidents we’ve ever elected.

THIS IS THE TRUTH THAT WE HAVE NOT BEEN TOLD!!!!

I should also say that our best hope for ever again becoming a significant producer of real goods and rekindling a substantial manufacturing base, lies of course in producing something the world wants and needs… and importantly, it should be in sectors where our technological prowess and innovation gives us an upper hand.

The obvious area, therefore, is green technologies, just as Obama and many others have envisioned and proposed. New world realities ensure that leaders in green technolgies will be guaranteed an edge in future trade deficit wars.

In all other areas of manufacturing, we have already lost the battle… let’s not lose this last and best opportunity.

One final thought:

As stated above, no real new wealth was created during the last decade to support job growth for the population added during the last decade.

Add to that one more exacerbating circumstance: those who would historically have been leaving the workforce to free up jobs for newcomers are now being forced to work past the traditional age of retirement. This will naturally translate into even fewer jobs for those trying to enter the workforce.

Had this recent economic fiasco been averted with a little foresight, regulatory enforcement, and the intelligence to heed the Cassandras who warned those in power, then this compounding problem of fewer retirees wouldn’t exist either.

JP has the best explanation I’ve seen.

Stagnant wages, outsourced jobs to increase stock-holder value, and an economy that centers on shuffling money for profit (doesn’t matter if it’s microchips or potato chips as long as it get you rich and you don’t pay taxes).

The only thing left to outsource is the consumer and we all sit around with the same buying power we had in 1980 crossing our fingers hoping some faith-based recovery is on the way. I’m 57 and this is the first time I’ve seen it like this. Plenty of money to invest in the hands of the rich but very few have much to spend. Those that do have work and money are worrying about the next layoff or how soon until their job is outsourced.

If your job can’t be outsourced the job of the person who buys your services can.

Most of the recovery is taking place on Wall Street, thanks to the hundreds of billions of dollars they got from hard-working, poor and middle income taxpayers.

Senators arguing about where we are going to find money ($2 billion) for Cash for Clunkers. Is it fair to defer this bill to our kids, etc. garbage.

Is it also fair to borrow money from our kids piggy-banks to Occupy Other Countries.

If you are broke, you would NOT think of buying a plane ticket, flying off to other countries, beat people up and coming back, while you cannot pay for your own groceries, would you?

Free Money For Obama Administration in Fiscal 2009:

Amount: $400,000,000,000.00

How: Investigate what really happened on the Day of 9/11
Then we will find out the reason why we invaded Afghanistan is utterly BOGUS. We will also realize that invading Iraq had nothing to do with America’s National Security.

We will start getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan tomorrow morning. Savings: $800 Billion + Honor + Humility + Integrity + Proud to be American.

It is that simple!

I saw this movie on comedy central that made me think about whats slowly happening to our country.

storyline is they freeze a solider and a street walker, they wake up 500 years later, where everyone only drink Gatorade because of the electrolytes and water is only used for toilets, the prez is elected because he was a pro-wrestler, corporations have bought the fcc, food and drugs, and most of the government branches, 50 percent of people in the u.s. work for one company, and logic makes no sense, and people only understand sound bite, Foxes news in the only station, and the only thing on the news is sex and violence, no one can think for themselves.

Made me think of the republican’s party base and the dumbing down of Americans.

sorry i missed the title of this movie.

The major cause of this economic problem is simple.

Massive Transfer of Wealth from the Poor/Middle Class to the “Extrmely Wealthy”. The method they use is to attack the savings (retirement/home values/savings/insurance/contracts).

One way of stopping this was to stop foreclosures due to fine print, gray/faint printing, micro print on fraudulent mortgage contracts. These contracts were designed NOT to be read and understood.

We should give broad authority to District Courts to listen to the distressed families with deceptive APR/contracts, and issue broad relief in the form of halting mortgage payments for a few years.

The cost is $0.00 to the government. It is that simple.

JP-

I follow/agree with your outline, with the exception of blaming Bush. You don’t just gut the most powerful nation on earth in a single presidency and live to tell about it. No, if you want to place blame let’s go back to Greenspan’s admission (in so many words) that he did not anticipate the greed that would cause executives to put themselves before their shareholders. These are the people we allow to run this country.

Hooray for Joe B! I wonder why JP, Lilya, Putney and Mike never get quoted.

The problem with the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program is that the only people who can participate are those who can nearly afford a new car. What about the enormous percent of the population who cannot afford a new car? I would argue that these are the people who deserve an easier time. Also there should be far more restrictions regarding the eco-friendlness of the cars bought with the cash. Using the money to buy a car that makes only a few gallons per mile better than the cutoff at 18, is irresponsible….and indeed makes me feel that only the automakers are benefitting from this program.

The government has never been for the lower 80% of the people. As Howard Zinn says when the economy is discussed the subject is the well being for those who economically are at the top.

I heard Professor Shiller on the Charlie Rose Show last week and was glad to hear him again. Today he was speaking of the possibility of a double-dip recession. I really worry that the Cash for Clunkers is a harbinger of the last gasp of the Old Economy. Once again, we will support businesses that have not adapted enough. What businesses? As pointed out in this forum, huge American money is going to the defense industries; apparently we don’t have better uses for energetic young people’s efforts, nor contractors and defense suppliers that anchor our economy. So defense is one. Second would be the health insurers; if that’s a sixth of the economy, a lot of workers are needing those jobs; and a lot of American “wealth” is propping up those profits. In both cases, defense and insurers, the lobbyists are feeding K Street and politicians reelection efforts.
Third would be American money ginning up “stuff” that consumes energy and toasts the planet. It’s very retro. There is a new way ahead; who’s designing it? Before we all croak. If we all re-invest in an economy that crashed from ill-advised investing, ill-advised war-mongering, ill-advised buying and building, then who’s got a grip on that? Do we just want the old system back?
I want scooters, railways, “Main Streets” with geo-thermal multi-unit housing, not luxury units or subsidized “affordable” units, but housing designed for people who work like hell and save, trying to build equity in responsible businesses.
I think Shiller, who I think (?) focuses on real estate, could speak to this, but it’s a whole program.

Mike – I believe the title of the movie is “Idiocracy.” I saw it a while back, myself. Pretty silly movie but the idea behind it is frighteningly serious.

At bottom even government radio must have some standards. But apparently not “on point”. After this program made clear how dire the US economic situation is for average working (or perhaps formerly working) people, and how dire the possibilities are for any change for working people (as opposed to the wealthy) whether or not the resscion “ends”, to end the show by saying that Detroit will come back because its manufacturing base is resilent is beyond being morally corrupt.

Similarly to your spin dude shiller, I grew up in Detroit. I went to Detroit public schools and then to U of Mich (as did shiller). The truth of the matter is that the conditions for working people in Detroit are horrible, have been so for 25 years and have been getting steadily worse throughout that time period.

To, on the one hand worry that this looks like a jobless recovery, and then to act as if the people of Detroit have any hope is the typical spin nonsense that prevents coming to grips with the fundamental inequities of the american economy. That economy is based on reducing jobs and reducing pay while demanding more and more productivity and outsourcing of work. The profit structure of the american economy is the cause of the demise of american jobs not the fact that Detroit workers used to receive medical insurance and workers’ comp (as other spin dudes on government radio shows have claimed).

Rachel how old are you? 6, try growing up and acting like an adult. This is not a competition.

Jonas, I thought I’ve been hearing that Michigan is retraining people for what I’ve styled “the new economy.” Personally, I’d be glad to see the auto industry get off a self-destructive drive and start building for the future. Like Shiller, I’d say Michigan has the know-how and can do this. I’m thinking of Wayne State University. I had a grandfather who worked on developing synthetic rubber during World War II, when the Japanese were cutting us off from rubber. Then he taught at Wayne State. He kept developing new chemical ways of doing things. There are still people thinking of new ways. And they too will have complexes of laboratories, and businesses and jobs will spin off. American know-how does not mean remembers-how it used to be done. It means studies, collaborates, innovates. I thought Michigan was up to the challenge. No?

Rachel,

cause often the simple minded, are easier to get ratings, and be countered since all they are working with is a sound bites, as compared to responding to in depth post by JP which takes a longer period of
time and will often lose these people with short attention spans.

as noted with most if not all of joes comments on previous threads, even when proven wrong time and time again, its still repeated. as his comments on palin, birthers, SC governor, rush l, the colaspes of the economy.

so Hooray for simple minded people

Further….
It’s understandable everyone’s frustration regarding the economy….yet I feel there’s usually a lack of a real overview in the solutions posited. If we start with the most global point of view, we all agree (at least most of us, ahem) that our planet and its elements of earth, water, fire, air and space are in danger. This fact and their sustained health has to remain as the prime directive. Of course no one (when they’re thinking clearly) wants the earth to perish or have her ecosystems collapse or have animals go extinct….since we humans are merely two legged animals. So if we take that as the first given…..
Next we need to get out of this very deep emotional rut (in my modest view) of feeling that ‘high technology’ will answer all our concerns. It will not. It often is the very source of our problems….i.e. chemical pollution and loss of jobs. We lose jobs to technology every day (i.e. the USPS) because one machine can often replace easily many hundreds/thousands whatever of people. Who benefits? The owners of the company. So the ‘rut’ is the public buying (literally) into the hype always surrounding every new gadget. We collectively forget the companies are out to make money 99.9% of the time. Does everyone have to own a cell phone? No.
Does everyone have to have an HD TV? No. Does everyone have to have cable TV? No. Does everyone have to own an IPOD? No. Do we need new cars, new clothes, new hairdos, new music all the time? No! But we’ve been emotionally programmed to want them. Culturally we are suckers to companies who want us to buy their stuff and always have been. And now we’re collectively suffering the consequences of this sort of mass coma.
And parents who have lost their grip with their children in this generation (sorry for the generalization. Of course there are exceptions) are suffering as well. Kids who are numb to violence, rapacious, obese, addicted to computers, and care little for others, much less the world at large….who created the conditions for these beings to be here? We did.
We must become wiser when it comes to our choices….we must learn as individuals and as a culture to be aware of the consequences of our actions from this larger point of view.
Manufacturing has been a massive strength for us in the past. There is no reason it cannot be again. ‘Middle’ or ‘Low-Tech’ solutions that DO NOT harm our ecological health can very much support everyone. The remnants of ‘High-tech’ can still give people a thrill….we can send beings to the moon, once people again have jobs, clean food, clean air, clean water, space to live and thrive. We’ve got to get our priorities as a nation in order. Assuming that profit driven freedom is the answer is not only irresponsible, it is dangerous. And we are walking this extremely steep slope everyday it doesn’t shift.
Educating people to start health at home with proper nutrition, exercise, mental and emotional well-being….these extremely simple solutions can easily take place. Please Mr. Obama, give me only 1 billion dollars of your stimulus money….and we will create a system that keeps people, the land and ecosystems more healthy. But the huge industrial/hospital/insurance/ambulance chasing law complex won’t like it. Nor will people who love to have other people take responsibility for them and cannot or will not take responsibility for themselves, they will not like this either. It’s too simple….we’ve created a morass of complexity where the building blocks of life haven’t changed and will not change at all. Earth, water, fire, air and space. If we love and respect them, cherish them as the fabric of our lives and of all life, then our world is rich with life, health, beauty. peace, harmony.
If the iron grip of profit fed lobbying on Capitol Hill is not eased much less broken, indeed we’re in for a rough ride. If we constantly surrender to the childish tantrums of greed, ego, ignorance that is self-serving, then wisdom cannot take its place as a healer much less as a ruler.
But as I often say, the good thing about extremes is that they make it easier to wake up.
I’ve written this rather quickly and would no doubt edit it further. Please accept this quick jotting as incomplete.

Pumamoon encapsulates of what bothers me. I think he leaves it up in the air whether technology is the problem or the solution. What a lot of hype about HD TV. I am really fine with low definition. I wouldn’t spend a cent for the extra definition.
But I would really like broadband access to be extended to every corner of the land, because a lot of work we do can be paperless, much more efficient, with high-speed internet. That’s a lot of jobs, a lot of growth for everybody. I think the problem is these things that are good for everybody (better schools, from pre-K through college, for example; health care too) aren’t doing well in the private sector.
If some undertaking is good for everybody (arguably a government function, like water, clean air, defense?), so they maybe belong in the public (nonprofit) sector, then no one wants to pay taxes for it. Our future is mortgaged to the gills as it is.
Taxes for highways and bridges, yes (we use them everyday); for railroads and subways/trolleys, no. For inadequate schools, yes; for topnotch education, no. For health care without profit-making insurers in everybody’s life, yes; for health care coordinated for everybody, no.
I think a lot of what I’ll call the New Economy needs a jumpstart from the federal government, then to be set free, “born,” once they start making money. The lobbyists want the funding to go to the old clunking businesses (the anchors of most of our retirement plans, the source of most of our jobs, all that), and it’s tough to steer toward a promising future. Sooner or later, we’ll see there is no choice, however.

Great post, Joe B! Sure got Putney and Mike’s goats. Thanks, on point for recognizing Joe B’s wisdom and sharing with the listeners.

Yes, Joe B. is so incredibly wise and worthy.

Who else would have ever thought to say that Wall Street was benefitting from the “hundreds of billions of dollars they got from hard-working, poor and middle income taxpayers.”

Thanks Joe, for the brilliant bit of original wisdom.

Look back at any other day’s posts for more amazing brilliance from Joe the brain (almost certainly what “B.” stands for).

Rachel glad to see your so affected by what I have to say.
No he did not get my goat or cat or dog for that matter.

I’m not very moved by ad hominem remarks.

I would love to see the expressions on people’s faces accompanying some of these posts. A wink doesn’t do justice; I can’t tell what’s going on in spots, except the sandbox is open for play.
The remark of Joe on the air today I thought was well said. (Which Joe is this anyway?) Usually I think Joe B is out there for the sheer joy of disagreeing with a lot of us, so maybe he has a twin (not a duplicate in perspective however).
Some people have a narrow range of things they can agree with a particular forum on, and out of politeness, they confine themselves to that. People who don’t explain themselves but simply disagree are often in that category. They’re sticky critters.
In any case, I don’t think anyone should take it personally that this one or that one gets on the air. My impression is that enough people call that On Point can usually select a balanced mix of callers. Personally, I think I’m on their “do not accept calls” list since I can never get through. Maybe they prefer I proceed in writing. Certainly I prefer this.

Hi Ellen,
I’m a she not a he…ahem.
Well, again I feel that wisdom is lost in many of the equations when it comes to technology. The USPS is closing 1,000 of post offices, has taken thousands of mailboxes off the streets because of the internet and competition from other carriers. Now, is that a good thing? I don’t think so. Honestly, I like some of the convenience of the internet and e-mail. Do I NEED it? No. I’m perfectly capable of writing letters (in this instance) and love receiving them… and I’m perfectly capable of reading maps (don’t need GPS thanks you very much), love land lines (cell phones fry my head), and using phone books or information to get a telephone number.
And if the internet died today I would live very happily. I like to be able to write in forums like this, chat now and again with friends and read the news from different sources. But is it neccessary? Not at all. We gain lots, but what are we losing? Why do we assume that this free internet is the best thing for everyone? Is it? I think this is a debate that is rarely addressed and should be.
I was also merely pointing out that we so often get emotionally hooked by the media and their sales pitches….we always or often forget that WE the public, are the ones with the power. It’s our bucks, and though we often forget, it’s our voices that do run the show. It’s just that so many of us become mute when the forces we have to scream over are often dressed in Armani, and commute by private jet etc…and backed by hidden forces who are swimming in dollars, yen, yuan and whatever other currency.
Needless to say these issues and situations are complex. However I still feel that if we keep the health and well being of the planet in the fore, we cannot go wrong. That must be our roadmap.
And to Putney Swope, why is that tugging at memories from around Junior High School? Remind me of who that character was?
Cheers!

I tried too listen to this show. Alas it was more of the same. One thing I don’t think has been raised is that for most Americans their earnings have been stagnant or falling since the mid 70’s. Which is one of the causes of the incurred debt by so many Americans.

Lets be real, the special interest control the outcome.
What we just witnessed was the largest theft of capitol in the history of the country and this has been enabled by both Bush and Obama.

I think we are heading for some extreme turmoil as a nation. Witness the anger starting this summer at the Palin rallies and now we see it manifested in the birthers BS which is moving on to the health care debate.

Now we have people from the right who think that shouting and being belligerent is the way to act, denying others a platform by taking over or constantly shouting at the public events set up to discuss health care.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/denise-dennis/right-wingers-wreak-havoc_b_249897.html

One can not ignore the huge amount of gun sales after Obama’s election.

Putney Swope was a film made in 1969 by Robert Downey SR.

Putney Swope is the only black man on the executive board of an advertising firm, and is accidentally put in charge after the death of the chairman of the board. Following the unexpected death of the chairman, each member of the board believes that he, himself, should be elected to the board. However, the bylaws of the corporation prohibit voting for oneself for the chair, so each individual member votes in a secret ballot for the person that no one else would vote for: Putney Swope.

Renaming the business “Truth and Soul, Inc.”, Swope replaces all but one of the white employees and insists they no longer accept business from companies that produce alcohol, war toys, or tobacco. The success of the business draws unwanted attention from the United States Government, which considers it “a threat to the national security.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putney_Swope

I think Joe B. has utterly convinced himself that G.W. is not the one responsible for the Wall Street bailouts. The fact is that George Bush locked the U.S. into a process of corporate bailouts by committing hundreds of billions of tax-payer dollars before Obama was even considered a likely winner of the election. Obama had no choice but to continue the bailout policies, because changing course would have been tantamount to telling tax-payers that the hundreds of billions Bush spent would just be written off as waste by the new administration. Personally, I think Obama should have scrapped the bailouts, but Republicans would have had a field day convincing Americans that Obama had just wasted all of Bush’s and the tax-payers hard fought efforts at stemming the recession. President Obama, of course, just can’t win with Republicans. I believe that Joe is probably jsut one more Bush supporter who can’t bear the thought that his ignorant choice of supporting Bush for all those years doomed our country to this mess. He is possibly even one of the poor slobs put out of work. Since he can’t bear the guilt of blaming himself and others like him, he chooses to blame those who were smarter than him all along. Democrats and Obama are an easy target now for people like Joe, because they are now the ones in power, and conservatives always bank on the fact that just enough Americans have no more than a five minute attention span.

Thanks for the reminder PS. I’m sure I’ve seen it, but I don’t recall by your description. I’ll keep it on my radar screen…
Cheers.

Here it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08-chcHKPJw&feature=related

Ellen,

No, there is no real job retraining going on in Mi, in part because there are no jobs, in part because despitee the public statments of politicans and industry, they are not willing to invest in real job training for real jobs.

Antecdotal evidence of how someone created an industry 60 years ago is diverting but has nothing to do with the reality of detroit. To try to make this a matter of whether one is an optimist or not misses the point and helps to obfescate(?) the real problem.

Of course any thinking person wants the world economy to get off of the oil standard, etc. And certainly the auto industry will do anything and everything to avoid change, even to the point of destroying Detroit and the environment. But that isn’t why Detroit is economically dead. it is dead because world capitalism (I hate to use cliches but there it is)has cheaper places to make its products, for instance China where it uses free prison labor. There is no way that an industrial society such as Michigan can compete with dictatorships that not only allow but require that its citizens work under horrendous conditions for virtually no wages. Come on!!!! American politicans, media, industry complains about workers getting overtime!!! About getting vacations!!!!!! They complain about industry having to pay its fair of taxes to keep up the roads and sewers that it uses.

I guess that I would ask that you name one industry that will be put in Michigan and that will provide living wages to the millions of unemployed people. And please say something more than a cliche about how some new industries will magically appear as if some variant of the Adam Smith capitalist myths about the invisible hand that guides the economy and insures that all turns out well.

I don’t mean to sound mean. But Detroit and the people who are destitute there matter to me and the current cliches such as Shiller’s end comments are beyond comprehension.

Stuff happens in cycles…this applies even to the economy – it will do well for a while then it go down into the crapper…and so forth. As an average person all I do is live a frugal life, save when things are good, educate myself and my family, learn constantly and work smart. I take care of myself, my family and my community and I don’t depend on Wall Street or Main Street to do the right thing.

Jonas, I think you’re right about so much. And I am so sorry if the training programs are not targeted. Don’t get me going on education that educates you for the previous generation, for the needs of the past. There is a wild goose chase element to what is going on now. I had thought Michigan had its eye on a real future. No, the “invisible hand” of capitalism has misled us hugely. I mean, yes, it has misled us. The questions on the table are huge, and meanwhile people are poor without hope, sick without care, homeless, bored/anxious/restless/mad.
Question: there are 6 or so billion people; it seems the more profits churn their way, the more corruption here or there leads them unto starvation. The more the World consumes, the greater the GDP’s, the worse off the planet is in terms of environmental preservation; the less the GDP’s, the more all 6 billion have to hunker down, tighten the belts (sicken, starve). How can we think in a century that people gain the know-how to live twice as long, yet provisions for needing them here don’t come along with Adam Smith’s instructions.
Does the world have a place (work) for 6 billion people, cheap labor without limit (work that wouldn’t be adding plastic trash and fumes galore)? Does the U.S. have need us all, some 300 million, with work best done in the US?
Would someone address this? The only answer I come to is that if bees die off, and pollinization has to be done by hand, then huge numbers of people will be needed to fertilize every pear, every plum. And if you didn’t want children to grow up and do that, well…

Go to your local grocery store and see if the prices of the items you are buying have risen. I find that prices are from 10 to 30 percent higher. So inflation is what percentage of the recovery?

The “interview” with Hardwood was so shallow and uninformative that I stopped listening.

Ah, yes. The apologists for Obama and the Democrats are out in full force with their delusional and intellectually dishonest comments.

“Obama had no choice but to continue the bailout policies, because changing course would have been tantamount to telling tax-payers that the hundreds of billions Bush spent would just be written off as waste by the new administration.”

But Obama did part ways – at least when campaigning – on the previous administration’s policy on Iraq war with no negative effect, and without acknowledging that the money spent in Iraq was a waste. Obama had no choice to continue with the bailouts not because of the feel-good reason you mention, but because he became a President thanks to “campaign contributions” (a nice euphemism for bribes) from those special interests who needed a bailout. Did you even look at the resume of his cabinet picks and their connections to the Wall St. companies? Or are you really that unaware of how things work in Washington? If your ignorance is willful, then it’s downright criminal.

“Personally, I think Obama should have scrapped the bailouts, but Republicans would have had a field day convincing Americans that Obama had just wasted all of Bush’s and the tax-payers hard fought efforts at stemming the recession.”

Really? Then how come Obama still won in November even though the majority of public was against those bailouts (look at polls taken during those times)? And how would the Republicans have had a field day when majority of Americans were against those bailouts, including many Republicans in the House? Short memory, Nancy? Or are you indulging in revisionist and your version of facts?

“President Obama, of course, just can’t win with Republicans.”

Don’t know what that means and why he needs to win with the Republicans – he ran on his agenda (not the Republicans’ agenda) and got a clear mandate to implement it. He did win in November with the Republicans around, promised single-payer healthcare 1.5 years ago contingent on Democrats being in control – which they are now. Who exactly is stopping him from implementing responsible policies when Democrats are in the driver’s seat in Washington, DC?

Sorry to say, but I have a feeling you’re an Obama supporter, and your comment is typical apologia for him and his failure to implement Hope and Change which you swallowed. As usual, it’s easier to blame others instead of being introspective, because if Obama is wrong, then that implicates you and those who voted for him. And how can you ever be wrong? There are always Republicans to take the blame. And so on the stupidity rolls on either side.

For anyone still watching this topic.

Here is an analysis of how and why end of the recession talk is hollow.

It is called The End of the End of the Recession. It will take time to go through (72 pages, mostly one page graphs) but worth it.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/end-of-end-of-recession.html

Karen I hear you on the prices. I’m spending two to three times what I spent a two years ago for a bag of groceries.
I’ve been expanding the vegetable garden, but it’s hard to count on it. For instance I lost half my bean crop to the weather recently and I’m now worried about the tomato blight.

As for the worse recession since the Great Depression well it seems to me it’s far fro mover and we could be heading for stagnation.

Thanks for the nice comments Rachel.

I couldn’t believe what I was hearing when I listened to the show last night. The opinions of two esoteric Keynesian economists who sit in an ivory tower and call after call from people who are “drinking the cool aid”. The only rational comment uttered was from a caller who said “our government is no longer of the people and for the people”. Every summer on NPR I hear people spouting off about a good summer read, well if you want to understand our current economic problems I would sugest the following:

Richistan by Robert Frank
Free Lunch by David Cay Johnston
The Revolution by Ron Paul

If you are at all interestested in where we are heading as a society I would also suggest:

1984 by George Orwell

[...] Recovery Ahead? – On Point with Tom Ashbrook Some hopeful signs out there for the economy. The GDP’s plunge has slowed — some economists see it bottoming out, and turning around. [...]

Put, thanks for the film link.
It was interesting to say the least and some moments (and characters) memorable.
I had indeed not see it before, but for some reason the name lodged in my memory banks.
Millard-fillmore, I wonder why you interpret people’s comments as basically apologetic, delusional and intellectually dishonest?
Can anyone disagree with you without your berating them, or is that the only means by which you can feel superior? Seems rather sad if that’s the case, and all the more reason not to give your comments any credence whatsoever.
Cheers.

“Millard-fillmore, I wonder why you interpret people’s comments as basically apologetic, delusional and intellectually dishonest?
Can anyone disagree with you without your berating them, or is that the only means by which you can feel superior? Seems rather sad if that’s the case, and all the more reason not to give your comments any credence whatsoever.”

PM, please feel free to disagree with me (though it’d be helpful to know which facts you disagree with) – that’s the beauty of our country and its wonderful value of freedom of expression. BTW, how much “berating” of others did the Democrats indulge in over the past eight years? I have first-hand experience of witnessing it – so all I learned about “berating” and mentioning facts, I learned from observing my liberal friends and their reactions to Bush-Cheney – I guess they also wanted to feel superior to those who voted for, and supported Bush. What’s sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander, no? Or are you saying that the Democrats and Obama deserve special treatment, and that the berating is only reserved for Republicans?

If my mentioning of facts makes you or others uncomfortable and bursts your Obama balloon of Hope-n-Change, that’s hardly my problem. Feel free to not give credence to my comments – I guess I’m giving people like you an easy way out to dismiss facts, and I’m fine with that. And if you are not a Democrat apologist and instead hold all political parties accountable, especially the one in power, then my comment shouldn’t bother you – it’s specifically addressed towards Democrat and Obama apologists, like Nancy.

Oh, and if any Republicans think I’m their buddy based on my criticism of Democrats and Obama, think again.

And PM, if you don’t like my “berating”, it’ll probably make you empathize with all those who were at the receiving end of Democrat berating and give you an idea of how they felt. A wonderful, compassionate moment for humanity, no?

Well dear millard-fillmore, as all deft debaters know (and I would never include myself in that category), participants usually succumb to personal attacks when they themselves have no substantive statements to further their viewpoint. Such tactics indeed make me feel sorry for those (often for the Republicans) who have to stoop to such feeble measures.
Cheerios.

further…
And while we are standing in the midst of highly charged phenomena and issues on all sides, personally I look forward to the day when the us/them dichotomy falls away so that we as a culture and nation can really address the challenges that face us in a meaningful and effective manner. As long as we stand divided, dualistic tendencies will rule the todays and tomorrows to come. Maybe the time has come to eradicate this multi- (much less two) party system.
Peace.

The last post on August 4th, from Lon Ponschock, was a link to blogspot he contended was 72 pages, an article on the turns of the recession. I couldn’t access the article without signing up but checked the author Tyler Durben, finding him associated with speeches on the value of writing/posting anonymously, weird. The article credited also one David Rosenberg, well-known bear, late of Merrill Lynch, now in Canada. Google that name and click the first, Business Insider, article with his analysis of the stock market miniboom of March to May 8th. Believe me, I don’t track stocks without a bottle of aspirin at the ready. But that is not 72 pages. It’s a lot quicker to take in than the Wall Street Journal.

Messrs Shiller and Siegel are all reputed economists, Mr. Shiller in particular having much to his credit predicting the impending crisis. However, I heard not a single word about the fundamentals of what is coming. To a non-economist like myself who had managed to educate myself tremendously over the last 4 years, and possessing a PhD in a real subject, the key issue to us is DEBT, both households and government, and its drag on the economy, not to mention total dependence on the continued confidence on the debt markets.

The second is the lofty imbalance in this economy. 40% of profits in 2007 was due to financial companies, that is not counting their bonuses. This sends a strong signal to the rest of the economy, to people such as myself, your skills and work do not count.

Until these fundamental issues are reformed and debts are paid down, I do not see any strong growth for years to come. Any statements otherwise are simply wishful thinking.