Republican presidential candidate John McCain pauses as he speaks at a rally at Montgomery County Community College in Blue Bell, Pa., Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2008. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Last debate tonight. Two weeks and change ’til election day.
And John McCain is way down in the polls. Tumbling. In national polls, down by double digits to Barack Obama. In key swing states, down. Among white women voters, down.
For weeks, McCain and Sarah Palin hit the trail with angry, almost mob-stirring attacks on Obama. It backfired. McCain suspended his campaign to, he said, jump on the economic crisis. That backfired, too.
Ronald Reagan came back from a deeper hole, in less time, in 1980. Can McCain do it this time?
This hour, On Point: the McCain campaign, trailing, and running out of time.
You can join the conversation. Are you a supporter who has drifted away? Can McCain and Palin win you back? Is it too late? Tell us what you think.
-Tom Ashbrook
Guests:
We’re joined first from New York by Frank Luntz. He’s a well-known political pollster whose clients have included Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani, and he’s been running post-debate focus groups for Fox News. He’s the author of “Words That Work: It’s Not What You Say, It’s What People Hear.”
From Boston we’re joined by Jonathan Kaufman, senior reporter for The Wall Street Journal covering the campaign. His latest piece looks at the shift of working-class women to Obama as the economy has worsened.
Joining us from Washington, DC, is David Winston. President and founder of The Winston Group, he’s a Republican pollster and strategist currently advising House Minority Leader John Boehner and other GOP congressional leaders. He served as director of planning for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and was chief information officer for the Republican National Committee from 1989-1993.
And from New York we’re joined by Holly Bailey, a correspondent for Newsweek traveling with John McCain on the campaign trail.
Tags: 2008 election, John McCain, politics
John McCain, turn the lights out because the party is over.
Posted by Joe B., on October 15th, 2008 at 6:34 am EDTI hope you have time to question why Obama’s connections to Ayers have received more press interest than McCain’s transition chief (who lobbied for Saddam Hussein) or Palin’s connection to a fringe party (AIP) that sought sponsorship from Iran in 1993 in order to gain a forum at the UN.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html
http://minnesotaindependent.com/12165/palins-friends-the-america-hating-iran-conspiring-aip
Posted by Rachel in Manchester, on October 15th, 2008 at 8:13 am EDTFrank Luntz should know the demographic of your listeners better. His statement that no NPR listeners would be supportive of Sarah Palin is plain wrong.
Posted by LindaM, on October 15th, 2008 at 10:15 am EDTPolitical marketing in the style of Frank Luntz is a plague on our society, and with the politicians and media complicit in abandoning public service for election wins on empty words and the ease of covering a horse race, its eating away at our democracy.
Posted by Nate, on October 15th, 2008 at 10:15 am EDTSarah Palin might have reenergized the base for the McCain campaign, but where has that gotten him? It’s time for the Republican party to recognize that the religious fundamental right for what they are–a relatively small fringe element, and it might be time to abandon them. The party needs an infusion of energy, but the energy galvanized by a message that speaks to youth who care about the planet, about poverty, about health care, about democratic economic policies.
Posted by Michelle Mouton, on October 15th, 2008 at 10:32 am EDTSarah Palin’s remarks were delivered at the rallies with sarcasm and venom. If she had been able to explain to the audience how Ayers fit into history, she would have likely succeeded much better in her attacks. However, I suspect she did not have the knowledge available that would have enabled her to make her case against Obama. Intelligence and knowledge and not catch phrases are what she needed.
Posted by Rowena Davidson, on October 15th, 2008 at 11:13 am EDTMcCain’s negative campaign and the choice of Sarah Palin have pushed away swing voters. Obama is frankly not that scary in comparison to Phil Gramm, Sarah Palin, W., and the state of the economy.
Posted by Anne Greene, on October 15th, 2008 at 11:21 am EDTMcCain is losing the election that’s for sure.
When you have conservatives such as Christopher Buckley endorsing Obama that’s says a lot about McCain’s problems.
Buckley pointed to Palin as one of his reasons for losing faith in McCain.
The other thing is that McCain’s campaign kept up the personal attacks, was erratic and impulsive to Obama’s claim and focused approach. In the end McCain has looked more like the inexperienced politician and the guy who they said did not have enough experience turns out to be a very good one.
Posted by jeff, on October 15th, 2008 at 11:38 am EDTForget Obama and McCain. Vote your heart either way. But almost 88% of all congressmen have their seats up for re-election on Nov 4th. Totally dismayed at our ~500 Congressmen, I’ve decided how to best handle my anger and (perhaps) “get even”. I’ve excused myself from work the next three weeks and have immersed myself in my new WEB site and will Blog my heart out with this message: Nationwide, let’s NOT re-elect any of the scoundrels.
Posted by Richard (Abers), on October 15th, 2008 at 12:32 pm EDTMcCain is still going strong due to his “built-up” goodwill with the press. HIS campaign has been as dirty as George W.’s but none of it has stuck to him personally. We know a thousand times more information about Obama than McCain, Obama has been too classy to push the issue. McCain’s campaign has DIRECTLY attacked Obama’s character, identity, religion, and family.
Unable to find any ethical, moral or character problems with Obama, McCain has tried to link the Obama to ANYONE who has spent as little as 5 min. in the same room as Obama. Used the same bathroom as Obama, then Obama automatically becomes YOU. This 6-degree of separation is as ridiculous as Palin having foreign policy by living in a state bordering Russia. The press’ has on the other hand reported this slime as legitimate news.
Following the 6-degree of separation, if ANY democrat or supporter makes a negative statement. This person is automatically morphed into Obama. On the other hand, this rule is not applied to McCain thanks to the press. McCain/Palin have been allowed to do far worse THEMSELVES, directly.
I can only imagine what would be the fall-out if OBAMA has a video with a religious nut praying on his head and casting out witches as with Palin. Or Obama being found GUILTY of unethical behaviour in office as with Palin. Or Michelle Obama being a member of an organization pushing for the separation of their state from the Union as with Palin’s husband. Or Obama having a pregnant teenage daughter, with a drug-using high school drop-out. Or Obama graduating at the bottom of his class due to poor grades and misconduct as McCain did in the Naval Academy. Or Obama cheating on his disabled wife and leaving her wealthy heirress as with McCain. Or Obama being a past member of the Keating 5.
Posted by Ann-marie, on October 15th, 2008 at 1:03 pm EDTAny one of the above would have ended Obama’s political CAREER, let alone his bid for the White House. McCain should thank his lucky stars for beeing in a position of priviledge with the press.
Are we witnessing the rise of Sarah Palin (Adolphina)? Scary thought even if she is somebody’s tool like Bush, rather than a putative Hitler.
Posted by Frederic C., on October 15th, 2008 at 3:48 pm EDTPolitical marketing in the style of Frank Luntz is a plague on our society, and with the politicians and media complicit in abandoning public service for election wins on empty words and the ease of covering a horse race, its eating away at our democracy
I dunno - I think that’s a value judgement.
Politics is about choosing which leaders to follow. In a democracy it’s actually about selecting leaders, but even in autocracies the leader STILL has to play politics, which is why spectacle, propaganda, iconography, etc, are still critical to staying in power.
I think expecting people to make informed policy decisions in some calm, rational, analytic manner really flies in the face of human nature. Obviously some people do this, and probably many more at least like to think that they do, but the data just doesn’t support the idea that this is how most human beings function.
Maybe in some futuristic society we can breed a computerlike “homo politicus” who can rise above it all, but until then politicians who want to win elections had better learn to market themselves.
Posted by Peter Nelson, on October 15th, 2008 at 4:45 pm EDT<iMcCain is losing the election that’s for sure.
When you have conservatives such as Christopher Buckley endorsing Obama that’s says a lot about McCain’s problems.
I agree. Barring a major “October surprise” or a mega-gaffe by Obama, it looks like Obama will win by a landslide.
And I also agree that Palin is a major factor. Yesterday I heard an interview with a female National Review (read: conservative) columnist who says Palin is a major deficit and pointedly refused to endorse McCain, hinting broadly that she would vote for Obama, although she didn’t come out and say so.
As the campaign has worn on, McCain/Palin have looked more and more ridiculous, while Obama has looked more and more calm, confident, and Presidential. Given that we’re just about to enter one of the worst economies we’ve ever seen having a President who can display a calming, confidence-building demeanor is exactly what we’ll need.
Posted by Peter Nelson, on October 15th, 2008 at 5:04 pm EDTThe problem with John McCain’s campaign has not been Sarah Palin, but his inability to connect with independent voters.
You can disagree with Obama, but he articulates a clearly thought out vision that comes across as new and different and oriented around a progressive role for government in improving peoples lives.
McCain on the other hand comes across as if he wishes he were somewhere else. I have a lot of respect for John McCain, but this is not the maverick senator that we have come to admire in the Senate, but someone who seems to be just touting the old republican party line of lower taxes and limited government. I am also left with the impression that he is not as committed as Obama to using government policy to improve the economic prospects for all Americans and especially those on the lower end of the income scale.
John McCain comes across to me as believing in the republican party ideals of free markets and trickle down economics as the main vehicles in the long term for creating jobs and economic growth. I think that McCain is trailing in the polls because many Americans have lost faith in that vision. If he had earlier in the campaign gone for a more maverick moderate approach he would have stood a better chance, but that would have risked losing the support of the republican base
Posted by Bob Hanlon, on October 15th, 2008 at 5:41 pm EDTThe problem with John McCain’s campaign has not been Sarah Palin, but his inability to connect with independent voters.
I don’t know if it’s possible to say what “the” problem is - he has so many of them. I don’t have any doubt that Palin has hurt him outside of some small band of right-wing religious fanatics.
But you are also right that his economic philosophy is way out of step with current sentiments. And his meandering slightly out of focus delivery contrasts poorly with Obama’s sharp, confident focus.
When my wife heard the promo for this show “What can McCain do to reverse his falling prospects?” she said, “Nothing! Don’t change a thing!” I agree. Whatever he’s doing, just keep doing it for 3 more weeks.
Posted by Peter Nelson, on October 15th, 2008 at 7:13 pm EDTI’m no political analyst though I do read the polls. What strikes me as missing both from the program today and the comments, is memory of just a few months ago when the polls were impressively and repeatedly wrong. Today’s show was all about opinions held by voting groups - but we know all that through polls. Isn’t it possible we are being once again misled treating the polls as facts when in fact they are imperfect indicators at best?
Posted by Rick Fleeter, on October 15th, 2008 at 7:29 pm EDTIsn’t it possible we are being once again misled treating the polls as facts when in fact they are imperfect indicators at best?
I don’t know which polls you’re referring to, but there is one poll that’s hardly ever wrong. That’s because it’s not a conventional poll - it’s a market where people get to invest their real money in political outcomes.
The University of Iowa got special permission from the SEC and other agencies to create an actual market in political futures data, as a scientific experiment. This has been running for years and it’s incredibly prescient. It picked Obama to win the Democratic nomination by the 2nd week in january; it picked McCain for the GOP in the first week in February. Take a look at the Presidential race:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm
Posted by Peter Nelson, on October 15th, 2008 at 9:24 pm EDTIt turns out that “Joe the Plumber” is not a licensed plumber or a member of Local 50 the plumber’s union.
He does have a plumbing business but I wouldn’t hire him as without a license he most likley does not have insurance.
This is to bad for “Joe the Plumber” as now he’s getting more negative publicity than he bargained for.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/joe-in-the-spotlight/?hp
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