Conservative Party congressional candidate Doug Hoffman waits to vote at the town hall in Lake Placid, N.Y. on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009. (AP)

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It was a “shot across the bow” Election Day for both parties yesterday. Different versions of a wake-up call.

For Democrats, two big losses in governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey. No Obama effect to save the day. Maybe a damper on the Obama agenda.

For the GOP, big victories in those states, but a high-profile defeat for hard-right conservatives in an upstate New York district that has gone Republican since 1872. The Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Tea Party candidate down in flames, and the GOP civil war still on.

This hour, On Point: The ‘09 elections — and the shots across the bow.

You can join the conversation. Tell us what you think — here on this page, on Twitter, and on Facebook.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Charles Mahtesian, national politics editor at Politico.  He’s been following the 2009 races closely and reported this week on conservatives gearing up to challenge GOP candidates. He joins us from Washington.

Ross Douthat, op-ed columnist for The New York Times and co-author of “Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream.” He writes in his latest column that third-party candidates injected substance into this year’s races.  He joins us from Washington.

Thomas Edsall, political editor of The Huffington Post and a professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Journalism. A political reporter at The Washington Post from 1981 to 2006, he’s author of “Building Red America: The New Conservative Coalition and the Drive for Permanent Power.”  He joins us from New York.

Mickey Edwards, former Republican Congressman from Oklahoma and member of the House Republican leadership. He’s now a lecturer at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and author of “Reclaiming Conservatism: How a Great American Political Movement Got Lost–And How It Can Find Its Way Back.”  He joins us from Newark, New Jersey.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, then director of the Congressional Budget Office, testifies on the budget and economic outlook on Capitol Hill on Feb. 1, 2005. (AP)

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In 2008, Douglas Holtz-Eakin was John McCain’s top economic adviser in the national presidential campaign.

In 2009, Holtz-Eakin is on the outside looking in at the Obama administration’s economic push — and looking around at his own party, the GOP, in disarray.

He’s raising alarms about the big deficits that have come with big stimulus. And he’s warning the GOP not to circle the wagons but to open up and engage with people and issues some would rather ignore.

This hour, On Point: Republican thinker Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Obama and the GOP’s future.

You can join the conversation. Tell us what you think — here on this page, on Twitter, and on Facebook.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guest:

Douglas Holtz-Eakin joins us from Washington. He was director of the Congressional Budget Office from 2003 to 2005, and won respect in that role from initially skeptical Democrats. He served in top roles at the Council of Economic Advisors under Presidents George W. and George H.W. Bush, and he was chief economic advisor to the McCain-Palin campaign last year. Now he’s working to start up a new GOP think tank in Washington.

More links:

Here’s Holtz-Eakin’s recent take on healthcare reform. Congressional Quarterly profiled him and explored his ideas about GOP reform. And Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic looks at the debate over Holtz-Eakin’s new conservative think tank idea.  You can also read his blog posts at The New Majority.

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania discusses his conversion to the Democratic Party at the White House with President Barack Obama in Washington on April 29, 2009. (AP)

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The Republican Party lost Arlen Specter to the Democrats last week. Over the weekend, they lost Jack Kemp, a vocal proponent of a “big tent” GOP, to cancer.

It’s been a “bad to worse” patch for the Republican Party. First they face a Democratic president who 81 percent of Americans say they like. Then they face an America where only 21 percent say they’re Republicans.

The permanent GOP majority envisioned by Karl Rove has given way, in crisis, to a Washington wholly dominated by Democrats, and critics calling the GOP “The Party of No” (somewhere between “a doomsday cult and Scientology,” writes New York Times columnist Frank Rich).

This hour, On Point: we’ll ask where is the big tent for the GOP now, and does the Republican base want to raise it again?

Republicans, what do you think? Even if you’re no fan of Specter, are you worried about the GOP’s dwindling ranks? Do you want a broader party or a purer one? What happened to the “permanent majority?” Tell us what you think — here on this page, on Twitter, and on Facebook.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Christine Todd Whitman, former Republican governor of New Jersey, former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, co-founder and co-chair of the Republican Leadership Council.

David Keating, executive director of the Club for Growth.

Matthew Continetti, associate editor at The Weekly Standard.

More links:

Last week, after Arlen Specter announced his defection to the Democrats, The New York Times framed the internal GOP debate in terms of a purer vs. a broader party.

The Los Angeles Times pointed to Olympia Snowe and Rush Limbaugh as examples of two very different reactions to Specter’s defection.

Over at The Wall Street Journal, conservative columnist Peggy Noonan wrote that the GOP would collapse if it didn’t maintain a big-tent attitude, while Bill Kristol, in The Washington Post, called Specter’s switch “good news for Republicans.”

A child seeking medical treatment waits to be attended at the makeshift waiting area set up at the entrance to the Naval hospital in Mexico City, Thursday April 30, 2009. (AP)

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It’s been the week that “swine flu” became “H1N1” and very nearly, says the WHO, a pandemic. Masks, Mexico and hog farms in the news. A small world and a quick spread.

In Detroit, Chrysler falls into the arms of bankruptcy and Fiat. In Washington, Supreme Court Justice David Souter dreams of summer in New Hampshire, and decides he’ll retire.

Arlen Specter makes a different change — from Republican to Democrat. And VP Joe Biden rolls out his version of snakes on a plane.

This hour, On Point: Our weekly news roundtable goes behind the headlines.

What’s your top story this week? Do you see Chrysler-Fiat coming back strong? Arlen Specter lining up for Obama? Have H1N1 and Joe Biden scared you off the plane? The subway? Out of your wits? Tell us what you think — here on this page, on Twitter, and on Facebook.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Joining us from Washington is Michael Gerson, columnist for The Washington Post, former White House advisor and speechwriter for President George W. Bush, and author of “Heroic Conservatism: Why Republicans Need to Embrace America’s Ideals (And Why They Deserve to Fail If They Don’t).”

Also from Washington we’re joined by Margaret Talev, White House correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers.

And from Hanover, N.H., is Jack Beatty, On Point news analyst and senior editor at The Atlantic.

President Barack Obama addresses a joint session of Congress in the House Chamber of the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009. (AP)

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So there was the new president, Barack Obama, in his first big speech before Congress — and oh, what a difference since last year’s State of the Union.

No George Bush, no scowling Dick Cheney, but smiling Joe Biden on the dais, and, at the podium, a young president with the highest public approval ratings since Ronald Reagan in his first month of office.

Obama was sober, he was hopeful, he laid out an agenda of startling ambition. But he still has to work it through America’s rugged politics. Rebuilding is going to take many hands, on both sides of the aisle, and that’s not easy.

This hour, On Point: we’ll get Republican and Democratic perspectives on the Obama agenda, and ask if it’s time for a bipartisan push to do the rebuilding — or if that is a pipe dream.

You can join the conversation. What did you hear in the President’s speech last night? Did you hear enough specifics? Enough hope? An answer to the crisis we’re in? And what about Governor Bobby Jindal’s Republican response?

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

John Harwood, political writer for The New York Times and chief Washington correspondent for CNBC. See his New York Times piece on President Obama’s early “fiscal pivot.”

Rep. Donna Edwards, Democratic Congresswoman from Maryland. She represents Maryland’s 4th District, which includes parts of Montgomery and St. George’s Counties, around the Beltway. She’s a lawyer and champion of progressive causes — a hero to her “netroots” backers. She’s in her first term in Congress, and she’s the first African-American woman to represent Maryland in Congress.

Rep. Michael Burgess, Republican Congressman representing Texas’s 26th District, in the northern part of the state, including Fort Worth and most of Denton Country and parts of Tarrant, Cooke, and Dallas counties. A medical doctor (obstetrician), he joined Congress in 2003. He’s a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and a strong opponent of the stimulus package.

Mike Huckabee speaks at a "fair tax" rally on Sunday, Nov. 16, in Duluth, Georgia, where he was campaigning for Sen. Saxby Chambliss in his Dec. 2 runoff election against Democratic candidate Jim Martin. (AP)

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Republican primary contender Mike Huckabee never tired of saying he was the real conservative in the ’08 presidential race, but he wasn’t an angry conservative.

In a GOP campaign that got angrier as it went, that stood out.

Huckabee ran on a shoestring and outlasted every Republican competitor but John McCain. Now, Mike Huckabee is having his say. He’s got sharp words for Mitt Romney. For evangelicals who did not line up with him.

He’s got questions about why it was McCain-Pailin, not McCain-Huckabee. And he’s looking ahead.

This hour, On Point: Mike Huckabee speaks.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Mike Huckabee joins us from Lexington, Kentucky. Former Arkansas governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate, his new book is “Do the Right Thing: Inside the Movement That’s Bringing Common Sense Back to America.”

From Washington, we’ll be joined later this hour by Gail Chaddock, Congressional reporter for the Christian Science Monitor.

And we’ll be joined by David Winston, a Republican pollster and strategist currently advising House Minority Leader John Boehner and other congressional GOP leaders. He served as director of planning for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and is a columnist for Roll Call and an election analyst for CBS News.

Sen. John McCain gestures as he delivers his concession speech at an election night rally in Phoenix, Arizona, Nov. 4, 2008. (AP)

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Listen to Republicans talk about their morning-after nightmare — looking at the map of Tuesday’s election results — and you know they’ve got trouble:

“Drubbing” … “Deep wilderness” … “Steep hill to climb” … “Ruins.”

After decades of dominance in American politics, the GOP is on the outs in the House, the Senate, and the White House. Back on its heels in state after state it once owned. Uncertain that its old alliance of cultural, economic, and security hawks still works. Talking rebirth, but around who? Palin? Pawlenty? Jindal?

On Tuesday, the new face of America, the young and minorities, came out to vote Democrat. Today, top Republicans are convening in Virginia to talk about the party’s future. How do they grow the ranks? Bring in new voters? Create a new message that resonates?

This hour, On Point: The Republican Party in defeat and debating how to rebuild. We’ll talk to conservative thinkers about the way forward.

You can join the conversation. In what direction would you like to see the Republican party go? What can they do to regain the trust of conservative Americans?

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

From Arlington, Virginia, we’re joined by Jonathan Martin, senior political writer for Politico. His piece today looks at the “GOP in dire straits.”

Also with us from Arlington is Tony Fabrizio, partner with Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, a research and consulting firm. In 1996 he served as chief pollster and GOP strategist to Bob Dole’s presidential campaign. His recent analysis of the Republicans’ 2008 troubles was titled, “Top GOPers: It’s Bush and Rove’s fault.”

From Washington we’re joined by Peter Berkowitz. He’s a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He served as a senior advisor on foreign policy for Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 presidential campaign.

And with us from San Diego, California, is Roger Hedgecock. He’s a nationally syndicated talk-show host based in San Diego. For more than a decade he served as Rush Limbaugh’s top fill-in host. He’s the former mayor of San Diego and author of a series of campaign issue books called “The 2008 Conservative Voter’s Field Guide.”

Young conservatives Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam are the toast of Republican thought circles right now. But their call to Republican revival is also a broadside.

Bush-era crony capitalism and government neglect, they charge, have pushed the USA toward a Latin American model of rich and poor and nothing in between.

If the Grand Old Party wants a comeback, they argue, it’s going to have to do something serious for American workers. But something conservative.

This hour, On Point: “Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class” — they say — “and Save the American Dream.”

- Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam, editors at The Atlantic Monthly and co-authors of “Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream.”

Robert Kuttner, co-founder and co-editor of The American Prospect, and co-founder of the Economic Policy Institute.

For almost 20 years now, Rush Limbaugh and the royalty of right-wing talk radio have been mighty barons in the GOP — ideological high priests, attack dogs, and megawatt poobahs with a huge base of followers in Republican country. They’ve been kingmakers.

This year, the Limbaugh crew is in despair. Cold fury. They despise John McCain, and John McCain is way out front for the GOP presidential nomination. He’ll destroy the GOP, Limbaugh has warned.

But McCain’s winning.

This hour, On Point: rightwing talk radio and its followers struggle with the rise of John McCain.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Kathryn Jean Lopez, editor of National Review Online and associate editor of National Review.

Ross Douthat, senior editor and blogger for The Atlantic Monthly, his forthcoming book is “Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream.”

Brian Maloney, conservative analyst and author of the blog radioequalizer, closely tracking conservative talk radio and the Republican Party.

Never count a determined man out. John McCain was down for the count last summer. Broke and written off and flying coach. Now he’s taken Florida, and the Republican race to Super Tuesday has a whole new complexion.

Giuliani is headed for the sidelines. Mike Huckabee hanging in, maybe for a VP seat with Florida’s winner. Mitt Romney and his millions girding for what could be a last stand. And the GOP base contemplating the never-surrender maverick, McCain, as their standard bearer.

This hour, On Point: The Republican field narrows on the way to Super Tuesday.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

S.V. Date, a contributor to the Tallahassee Democrat, he has covered Florida politics for a dozen years and is the author of “Jeb: America’s Next Bush.”

Tony Fabrizio, chief pollster and strategist for Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign. He has advised dozens of GOP candidates and the Republican National Committee.

Frank Luntz, CEO and Chairman of Luntz, Maslansky Strategic Research and author of “Words That Work: It’s Not What You Say, It’s What People Hear” (2007).

Jack Beatty, On Point news analyst and senior editor at The Atlantic Monthly.

So, Michigan has spoken — to Republicans at least — and the word is Romney.

Mitt Romney needed it bad. And he got it. Michiganders went for the man who promised their jobs back, and not John McCain, who said some were gone for good.

But this Republican race is still a free-for-all. Next stop South Carolina, where just about anything could happen.

And the Democrats? In Vegas last night, playing for high stakes in Nevada, where Latino voters get their first big say on Saturday.

This hour, On Point: on from Michigan, with all the chips on the table.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Jonathan Martin, senior writer for the Politico.

Blease Graham, professor of political science at the University of South Carolina.

Jamal Simmons, Democratic strategist working with the Nevada Democratic Party.

Ron Brownstein, political director for Atlantic Media and author of “The Second Civil War: How Extreme Partisanship Has Paralyzed Washington and Polarized America.”

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich was a field marshall in the Republican Revolution. Former senator Gary Hart was a Democratic contender for the presidency.

Now, they’re both saying the country is facing a crisis — and needs a radically new politics that blasts through partisan lines.

Gingrich is still conservative, but says Republicans have failed at governing. Hart has endorsed Obama, but also an extraordinary “national unity” government with cabinet members from both parties.

This hour, On Point: Newt Gingrich and Gary Hart on the challenges we face, and changing the game.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Newt Gingrich, former Republican Congressman from Georgia, Speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999, now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. His new book is “Real Change: From the World that Fails to the World that Works.”

Gary Hart, a former U.S. Senator from Colorado, he ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 1984 and 1988, and is now a professor of public affairs at the University of Colorado. His new book, “Under The Eagle’s Wing: A National Security Strategy of the United States for 2009″ will be published in April.

Iowa got the first caucuses, but New Hampshire holds the first primary. Today, on a beautiful day in the snowy Granite State, the pressure is on and the stakes are huge for both Republican and Democratic presidential contenders.

Hillary Clinton emoted yesterday as polls showed Barack Obama in the lead. John McCain looks strong as Mitt Romney struggles for a first win. Independents may hold the key.

We are in New Hampshire today, in the thick of both parties’ action — first, the Republicans.

This hour, On Point: McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and the GOP race for victory in New Hampshire.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Jennifer Donahue, Senior Advisor for Political Affairs at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm’s College.

Byron York, Fox News commentator and White House correspondent for the National Review.

Pat Buchanan, political commentator and three-time presidential candidate.

Drew Cline, editorial page editor for the New Hampshire Union Leader.

Jack Beatty, On Point news analyst, senior editor at the Atlantic Monthly magazine.

It is Caucus Day in Iowa — the first formal vote of Election ‘08 and the long race for the White House. If the Democrats’ complicated caucus procedure looks like a square dance, the Republicans’ is pretty straightforward — show up; vote.

But the GOP contest this year has been anything but a straight shot. Mitt Romney has spent big with no guarantee of a win. Mike Huckabee has grown big on a shoestring. National poll leader Ruby Giuliani is a no-show.

It’s turmoil time in the GOP — but also time to decide.

This hour On Point: Iowa Republicans speak up on where they stand — and why — on Caucus Day.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

James Lynch, political reporter for the Cedar Rapids Gazette.

Dennis Goldford, professor of politics and international relations at Drake University.

Eve Doi, will caucus for Mitt Romney.

John Scheppler, will caucus for Mike Huckabee.

Don McDowell, undeclared.

Eight years ago, Arizona Senator and presidential candidate John McCain had it all: the war-hero biography, the rock-ribbed conservative credentials, and, most of all, the Straight Talk Express that charmed independents and the press.

This time, he was poised to be the Republican comeback kid. But his campaign faltered, and he’s been an also-ran in a crowded field.

Now, GOP voters are restless, and he hopes their wandering eyes will give him another look, as he lands big endorsements in Iowa and New Hampshire.

This hour, On Point: John McCain’s second chance.

-James Hattori

Guests:

Senator John McCain, Republican candidate for President.

Holly Bailey, White House correspondent for Newsweek.

Ryan Lizza, Washington correspondent for The New Yorker.

David Brooks, syndicated columnist for The New York Times.

Drew Cline, editorial page editor for the New Hampshire Union Leader, which has given its endorsement to John McCain.

By guest host Jane Clayson

Like a revivalist preacher riding into town, Mike Huckabee — the former Baptist minister, Arkansas Governor, and long-shot Republican presidential candidate — is hogging the limelight, and sparking a lot of curiosity.

In new polls released this week, he has surged to the top of the GOP field in Iowa, and is virtually tied with Rudy Giuliani nationally.

Now, inevitably, the attacks are starting to fly: A flip-flop on immigration. A pardon for a rapist. A call to quarantine AIDS patients.

What kind of conservative, and what kind of man, is Mike Huckabee? This hour, On Point: the Huckabee surge.

-Jane Clayson

Guests:

Michael Isikoff, investigative reporter at Newsweek magazine, he’s co-author of this week’s cover story, “Holy Huckabee! The Unlikely Rise of a Preacher Politician.”

Jim Pinkerton, columnist for Newsday, contributor to the Fox News Channel and a fellow at the New America Foundation, he worked in the White House under presidents Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush.

John Brummett, columnist and reporter for Arkansas News Bureau.

Jonathan Martin, senior political reporter for Politico.com.

Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee tried, in last night’s YouTube debate, to break out of the Republican pack.

They got aggressive, especially on immigration, but also on the economy, on foreign policy, on taxes and on trade. Romney played defense. Huckabee looked like a contender.

But with no clear frontrunner, and with Iowa and New Hampshire just around the bend, this GOP race is as hot as ever.

This hour, On Point: the Republican candidates, the YouTube debate, and your vote.

-Jane Clayson

Guests:

Mark Halperin, editor-at-large and senior political analyst at Time magazine, political analyst for ABC News, and author of the new book “The Undecided Voter’s Guide to the Next President.”

David Hill, a longtime Republican strategist, he writes a weekly column on polling and campaigns for The Hill, a newspaper that covers Congress.

Jack Beatty, On Point news analyst and senior editor at the Atlantic Monthly.

It’s a funny week for Fred Thompson to be odd man out in the scrum of GOP ‘08 presidential contenders. Rudy Giuliani’s got evangelical Christian Pat Robertson blessing his candidacy. Mormon Mitt Romney has the religious right’s Paul Weyrich. Even John McCain has an endorsement from evangelical hero Sam Brownback.

But Fred Thompson — conservative former senator and TV actor who was to be this campaign’s Reagan — is sort of on his own, not conservative or galvanizing in quite the way expected. But could he still be the GOP sleeper?

This hour, On Point: getting Fred Thompson.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guests:

Christine Byun, reporter for ABC News covering the Thompson campaign.

Joe Mathews, political reporter for the Los Angeles Times, he wrote a series of articles on Fred Thompson’s early life and career.

John Geer, professor of public policy and education at Vanderbilt University, editor of The Journal of Politics, and author of “In Defense of Negativity: Attack Advertising in Presidential Campaigns” (2006).

Dick Polman, national political columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer and author of the blog “Dick Polman’s American Debate.”

If you’re an American voter who identifies with the Christian right, you’ve got to see Kansas Senator Sam Brownback as a stand-up guy. Brownback, a GOP presidential contender, stands up for traditional marriage, for prayer in school, for “faith-based” government programs.

He stands up against abortion, against embryonic stem cell research, against gun control. Critics call him an American theocrat. Why hasn’t the evangelical right embraced this man?

This hour, On Point: a conversation with Republican candidate Sam Brownback about his views, his run, and the GOP.

-Tom Ashbrook

Guest:

U.S. Senator Sam Brownback, Republican from Kansas and 2008 GOP presidential candidate.